No. of Recommendations: 26
Succession: We’ve known for some time now that Greg and Ajit would run BRK after Warren. Actually, that part of the succession has already happened for the businesses. The only remaining question was about who would manage investments. That was cleared up at this last meeting. Now it’s just about when Buffett moves on (Hopefully not soon.).
Seems to me there is at least one remaining question: Who will do the stock picking? The equity portfolio is a substantial part of Berkshire's total value. Who will run it on a day-to-day basis after Mr. Buffett's exit?
To say that Greg Abel is in charge of capital allocation is not the same as saying he will do the stock picking. He is an operator. He has no history as a portfolio manager. If Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, career-long stock pickers, needed to be brought along slowly, allocated small fractions of the enormous Berkshire port, does it make sense that someone with no background in equity research or selection should be given charge of the whole thing?
If the board follows Mr. Buffett's advice and gives Mr. Abel sole responsibility for capital allocation, he could certainly delegate management of the public equity portfolio to a person or persons with more expertise in that function. But who?
The widely-held assumption was that Todd and/or Ted were being groomed to take over the stock portfolio once Mr. Buffett left the stage. That might still be true. But their exclusion from both the dais and the succession discussion at the AGM makes me wonder. Both were comfortable, independent portfolio managers before joining Berkshire. They did so for the chance to work with Mr. Buffett, a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a career investor.
Will they willingly continue as subordinates to Mr. Abel? Does everyone here think that's a given? Does anyone else think someone might have mentioned it during the succession discussion if such an agreement were in place?
Will Mr. Combs accept as permanent a mid-career conversion into an insurance executive, or did he accept the Geico CEO role because Mr. Buffett asked him to? Is he likely to surrender it and return to his first love, within Berkshire or elsewhere, after Mr. Buffett's departure?
Is this an on-topic topic worthy of discussion or is everyone content to wait and see? Mr. Buffett made his reputation as an investor in the public markets. It may not be as important a role at Berkshire as it was back in the day, but it's still pretty important. Does anyone think it's obvious who will succeed him in that role?
