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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
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Author: lizgdal ✶☼  😊 😞
Number: of 4460 
Subject: Re: Treasury Bond Yields Tank
Date: 04/21/23 9:20 PM
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In looking at some data related to the debt ceiling, I found the following links. I think federal interest outlays as percent of GDP is the canary:
around 1.5% from 1940 to 1978.
increases to 3.0 % from 1978 to 1985.
steady at 3.0% between 1985 and 1996.
decreases to about 1.5% from 1996 to 2002.
steady around 1.5% from 2002 to 2021.
probably headed higher.

The Federal Budget in Fiscal Year 2022: An Infographic, March 28, 2023
Congressional Budget Office: Publication 58888

FRED charts for U.S. federal outlays, revenue, deficit, debt, and interest as percentage of GDP:
St. Louis Fed (FRED): Federal Net Outlays as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYONGDA188S) | FRED
St. Louis Fed (FRED): Federal Receipts as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYFRGDA188S) | FRED
St. Louis Fed (FRED): Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYFSGDA188S) | FRED
St. Louis Fed (FRED): Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (GFDEGDQ188S) | FRED
St. Louis Fed (FRED): Federal Outlays: Interest as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (FYOIGDA188S) | FRED

Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity
St. Louis Fed (FRED): Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS5) | FRED
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