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Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
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Author: lizgdal ✶  😊 😞
Number: of 1020 
Subject: Re: Treasury Bond Yields Tank
Date: 04/21/2023 9:20 PM
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In looking at some data related to the debt ceiling, I found the following links. I think federal interest outlays as percent of GDP is the canary:
around 1.5% from 1940 to 1978.
increases to 3.0 % from 1978 to 1985.
steady at 3.0% between 1985 and 1996.
decreases to about 1.5% from 1996 to 2002.
steady around 1.5% from 2002 to 2021.
probably headed higher.

The Federal Budget in Fiscal Year 2022: An Infographic, March 28, 2023
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58888

FRED charts for U.S. federal outlays, revenue, deficit, debt, and interest as percentage of GDP:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYOIGDA188S

Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS5
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