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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: ValueOrGoHome   😊 😞
Number: of 21944 
Subject: Market Cycle Fear vs Greed
Date: 01/26/24 10:47 AM
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If you pay much attention do you pay to macroeconomics, I'm wondering where in the pendulum of market sentiment we might be.

This article from Goldman Sachs' has 4 stages: Despair, Hope, Growth, and Optimism. goldmansachs.com - Equities are in the optimism phase of the stock market cycle
It's from July 2023, and in in Strategist Peter Oppenheimer said we were in the Optimism phase.

I'm fairly certain we're still in the bull market somewhere, but maybe not.

I'm reading Howard Marks' The Most Important Thing. In it, he describes three stages of a bull market:
1) when a few forward-looking people begin to believe things will get better.
2) when most investors realize improvement is actually taking place.
3) when everyone concludes things will get better forever.

If you think we're past the third phase, Marks identified three phases of a bear market:
1) when just a few thoughtful investors recognize that, despite the prevailing bullishness, things won't always be rosy.
2) when most investors recognize things are deteriorating.
3) when everyone's convinced things can only get worse.

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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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