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Author: abromber   😊 😞
Number: of 70 
Subject: DIS and CHTR
Date: 09/11/2023 10:46 PM
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Looking at the deal between DIS and CHTR. Obviously, it is good, because it restores the cash flow to DIS, but the real significance is in the future. From what I gather, Charter subscribers will now get the full DIS/ESPN package, and CHTR will pay DIS a discounted per-subscriber rate. In essence, they will share subscribers; DIS will provide the programming, and CHTR will collect the fees and pay them to DIS. Short-term, CHTR gets to keep its subscribers but gives up some profit. DIS gets a lot of new subscribers but gives up some profit. Long term, both get to preserve their options. Maybe not a bad deal for either.

abromber
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Author: abromber   😊 😞
Number: of 70 
Subject: Re: DIS and CHTR
Date: 09/13/2023 9:44 PM
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Here are some more comments in favor of the recent DIS CHTR deal from both sides:

"We needed them (DIS) to be a first mover to get us into this transformational model," Charter CFO Jessica Fischer said at the Bank of America Media, Communications, and Entertainment Conference Wednesday. "Overall, we believe that going forward in the long term, we'll be able to moderate the growth in content costs for consumers based on what happened in the arrangement with Disney. "[Disney] had the linchpin asset in ESPN," Fischer said. "You couldn't move to a new transformational model without ESPN. So because of that, we needed [Disney] to lead, which I think we said often, and it was true."

In an interview with The Hollywood Reporter, ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro indicated Disney was able to secure "very strong" rate increases for ESPN ' something Fischer said Charter was willing to accept given the value of the sports network.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/charter-disney-need...

My comment: People knock DIS, but its current share price reflects all of the bad news of the past few years, and if it can fix its streaming problems, its profits should grow significantly over the next 10 years -- with commensurate gains for shareholders. This deal is a good first step. Movies, Parks, Cruises, Star Wars, Marvel, and ESPN. Very strong brands all making money. They will soon have a new CFO and eventually a new CEO who will hopefully create even more synergies.

I'm close to my limit on shares right now, so (probably) not buying much more, but I consider this an investment with a lot more upside than down for those with a bit of patience.

abromber
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Author: Blackswanny   😊 😞
Number: of 70 
Subject: Re: DIS and CHTR
Date: 09/28/2023 1:30 AM
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Agreed. What are your thoughts on annual EPS in 5 years and terminal multiple?
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Author: tecmo   😊 😞
Number: of 70 
Subject: Re: DIS and CHTR
Date: 10/12/2023 12:06 PM
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Agreed. What are your thoughts on annual EPS in 5 years and terminal multiple?


Well, this is the million dollar question. Can they restore margins to previous levels. If they can then $6 - $7 / share seems attainable; adding a 25x multiplier on that and you get the bull case.

tecmo
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