No. of Recommendations: 2
Sure, it dramatically changed consumer preferences in automobiles by raising the cost of gas.
It literally remade the entire auto industry, put thousands out of work and fundamentally changed Labor in the United States.
The OPEC Embargo failed completely to achieve its primary aim, which was to disrupt the U.S.' support of Israel.
That they didn't achieve their objective shows that we're not the guy in the elevator afraid of the weapon-wielding maniac. The grenade went off and we didn't cave...but the country's economy was forever different as a result.
How many times would you care to roll that set of dice? Or, using a more direct analogy: How many spins of Russian Roulette do you want to take?
OPEC thought they had a powerful weapon, but in the end it had very limited utility to them. The cartel gave them a lot of economic benefits, of course, and that wealth brought them a lot of advantages. But the ability to stop production didn't give them all that much sway in geopolitics. At most they were able to influence the foreign policy decisions of other countries, but they never had any actual control over those choices.
The Oil Embargo is best analogized with Pearl Harbor: caused a lot of pain in the short term but in the end was a strategic loss for them. It happened in fits and starts but the US and Canada now call their own shots in the energy business.
So while China's market dominance in certain products gives them a powerful tool to influence the choices made by other countries (like encouraging us to reverse our reckless tariff policies), it doesn't give them all that much power to use to achieve their goals. Some, to be sure - especially over those countries that are also within its military sphere of influence. But it's limited.
I never assume my enemies are dumb and that they'll make mistakes. OPEC made a strategic mistake by overplaying their hand. We shouldn't assume that China will do the same.
