Umm. Stop believing there isn't a path to defeat the convicted felon rapist.

There is.

Of course. If you build an election model that relies in part on economic fundamentals, that model's going to show good things for Joe Biden.

Even though he's trailing in every national poll and every swing state poll. And even though he has historically bad unfavorability ratings, despite those chipper economic fundamentals. Because a signal aspect of this election cycle is that voters are not reacting to positive economic fundamentals with favorable views of the President.

While 538's model still thinks that acceptable GDP growth, low unemployment, and modest current rates of inflation are marks in Biden's favor, there's no sign whatsoever that the electorate is reacting to them that way or that they're going to any time soon.

It always fun to "unskew" the polls, to try to figure out why the voters' stated preferences don't match up to what we think the should believe. But I don't think too many people are going to take comfort from 538's election model.

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