Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 4
From Interactive Brokers Founder and President:
Last night, Kamala Harris engineered a surprisingly ferocious comeback on IBKR's ForecastTrader platform. Her probability of winning the election rose from 38% the night before to 44% at 8 pm last night, and this was done on a trading volume of about $40 million.
....
If it is not manipulation, then what is it? It must be that today's reporting of news events has changed the probabilities in the minds of the currently over 100,000 participants on this platform.
Are more people finally realizing that Trump is demented and a danger to our country?
No. of Recommendations: 4
I know you know all this, but for those who don't .................)
IIRC, Americans can't legally vote on Prez election, so these are all foreigners placing
their money. Plus the bookie is always trying to jigger the odds so that the betting pool
is balanced ( money on each side of bet ).
I honestly don't trust any of the polls, even the ones that have Harris winning.
Very much distrust the polls that show trump winning.
Personal anecdote, it feels like Harris is going to win by a lot more than Biden did
( popular vote ). Harris voters aren't usually making public displays in my red area, but
I see slightly more Harris signs that trump signs. trump supporters tend to be loud and
obnoxious, and they seem to plant multiple signs. They also plant signs on property
that don't belong to them, been some angry posts by non trump supporters yanking trump signs off of their property. Harris supporters are well aware of yahoos like the Ohio sheriff telling
trump supporters to make note of the addresses of where Harris signs are located. Implicit
threat of retribution. I'm pretty suspicious of some of these LEO's, even in my area, so
no public displays on my property.
No. of Recommendations: 5
Yes, and Trumps DJT stock is also down another -8% today as the invisible hand of the market gives Trumps chances of victory a thumbs down.
Maybe people are thinking twice about the economic collapse that Trumps Billionaire "government efficiency czar" Elon Musk keeps promising:
"Musk promotes the idea of economic collapse and high prices as a necessary side effect of Trump’s economic agenda. Trump’s economic plans will lead to hardship and cause markets to tumble."
PSA reminder: Donny the rapist is a convicted felon who is currently out on bail.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/...
No. of Recommendations: 3
I know you know all this, but for those who don't .................)
IIRC, Americans can't legally vote on Prez election, so these are all foreigners placing
their money. Plus the bookie is always trying to jigger the odds so that the betting pool
is balanced ( money on each side of bet ).…..
UNJ-
I think ges was simply giving “high clAss vegas” a sly poke in the ribs.
😉
No. of Recommendations: 2
"I think ges was simply giving “high clAss vegas” a sly poke in the ribs"
oh, I have a # of blacked out posters, so didnt see that.
I'm sure they are all good people, but I can't wrap my head around their
"logic", so for my own mental health, I don't consume their output.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Are more people finally realizing that Trump is demented and a danger to our country?
My guess is that the uber-rich foreigners (Hi, Vlad - Hi, MBS) who were manipulating these prediction markets in an attempt to influence the election in the US decided that it was time to close out their positions and recoup what they could of their money.
--Peter
No. of Recommendations: 1
IIRC, Americans can't legally vote on Prez election,
I love me a good typo.
