Please be positive and upbeat in your interactions, and avoid making negative or pessimistic comments. Instead, focus on the potential opportunities.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 2
No. of Recommendations: 0
Highest price WEB bought back B's?
What price does it start getting interesting?
No. of Recommendations: 1
Highest price WEB bought back B's?
$357.22
1.47x known book
What price does it start getting interesting?
1.47 x $303.37 = $446
But...it could be argued that the multiple of book should be lower now:
- cash deserves no multiple
- WEB is leaving
- multiple market crashing possibilities
No. of Recommendations: 2
But time has elapsed and IV has been grinding higher?
No. of Recommendations: 1
I thought buffet paid much higher in Q2 2024 for a share. $413 ish I think. Assuming 10% annual IV compunding rate that would be more like $455 today.
I look at the cash and think if we can just get the IRR from current 4% to 10% operating earnings will rise by $20 BB?
No. of Recommendations: 3
But time has elapsed and IV has been grinding higher?
Less than 2 years, and book value is higher: was 248.64, now $303.37
No. of Recommendations: 1
I thought buffet paid much higher in Q2 2024 for a share. $413 ish I think. Assuming 10% annual IV compunding rate that would be more like $455 today.
For A shares, yes, $418 equivalent. Jim wrote about that in the last couple of days. Probably buying from a private seller.
Highest for Bs that I have is $357.22
I look at the cash and think if we can just get the IRR from current 4% to 10% operating earnings will rise by $20 BB?
Aye, that would get my 5-groves up to $463 (add $20bn in earnings at 15x, remove $200Bn in cash).
What's your 5-groves currently?
No. of Recommendations: 9
My 5 grove is $509.
Per Share % of total
Grove 1 412.94 191.41 37.6%
Grove 2 225.07 104.33 20.5%
Grove 3 40.92 18.97 3.7%
Grove 4 372.99 172.89 34.0%
Grove 5 45.40 21.04 4.1%
Total Market Value 1,097.33 508.65 100.0%
This is current to yesterday.I am using a P/E closer to 18.
No. of Recommendations: 1
My 5 grove is $509.
Per Share % of total
Grove 1 412.94 191.41 37.6%
Grove 2 225.07 104.33 20.5%
Grove 3 40.92 18.97 3.7%
Grove 4 372.99 172.89 34.0%
Grove 5 45.40 21.04 4.1%
Thanks.
For cash + fixed as of Q1 I get:
Cash $328
Fixed $15
Total $343
No. of Recommendations: 0
Cash & Cash Equivalents 36.89 K-66
Short term US Treasuries 305.50 K-66
Investments Fixed maturities 15.04 K-66
Railroad Cash & Cash Equivalents 5.29 K-66
CQ Retained earnings 10.27 Calc
372.99
M1 30
M2 31
M3 24
M4 -
85 91
Quarterly Earnings 11.0
No. of Recommendations: 0
Looks like I may have a double count.
I need to exclude Treasury payables of 14.38 BB in liabilities.
Is this what others have done?
No. of Recommendations: 4
I need to exclude Treasury payables of 14.38 BB in liabilities.
Is this what others have done?
Yes, I did.
36.892+305.501-14.38 = 328
I think we've seen previously that my 5-groves is a lot more "conservative" than yours. I think of it as a price I could buy at that will be a good long-term investment.
To that end I exclude some cash that will never be invested, use a 15 multiple, and use expected earnings from insurance of 1.4% float rather than actual.
Including all the cash and using an 18 multiple I get $480.
It's funny. For the years my method gave an estimated value far higher than the market and I looked silly. Now the same methodology gives a value far lower than the market and I look silly.
I could just say buy at <1.4x book and achieve the same result, but what fun would that be?
