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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: ajm101   😊 😞
Number: of 209 
Subject: Favor - request for help
Date: 05/16/2025 3:01 PM
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I'd like to conduct an experiment against a managed investing service. While the weighting has varied, but the weighting is roughly 60% US, 30% international, and 10% fixed income. I was hoping it would give me time back on a portion of accounts, but I'm tired of paying 1% to underperform the target indexes.

I've considered
- VFIAX (https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/...)
- ACWX (https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239594/ishares...) or VEA (https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/...)
- BDN (https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/...)

And some others. This would be in a brokerage account, not tax sheltering.

Any suggestions or advice would be welcomed.
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Author: rayvt 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 209 
Subject: Re: Favor - request for help
Date: 05/16/2025 8:42 PM
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I dumped my managed account when I got tired of writing them checks totaling $10,000 a year. As you say, it is generally going to underperform.

As far as your choices VOO, VEA, and BND are fine if that's what you want to do.

An alternate suggestion:
How far out is your investing horizon? If it is 10 years or more, BND or any other fixed income is to be avoided, it's just a drag on your portfolio.

In the modern world, there is little reason to invest specifically in a Non-US fund. The large US companies are essentially world-wide. They do a lot of business out of the US, so you automatically get non-US exposure.

See this backtest comparison: https://testfol.io/?s=4Z4UFib5Cv8

The portfolio with BND (AGG) has the lowest total return, but with slightly lower volatility. But if you are investing for 10+ years you don't much care about the volatility. The lower volatility costs you a lot of money.

The S&P500 only portfolio (VFIAX) has the best total return and the best Sortino Ratio. In the Rolling Metrics tab, it also consistently has the best 10-year rolling returns.
It also has the best UPI -- "UPI is a measure of return relative to drawdowns (i.e. losses). It captures both the length and severity of all drawdowns."
Interestingly, it also has the best Ulcer Index of the stock-only portfolios.

40% higher ending value after 22 years than the portfolio with AGG.
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Author: AdrianC 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 15055 
Subject: Re: Favor - request for help
Date: 05/16/2025 9:33 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
60% VTI
https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/...

40% VXUS
https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/...

Even simpler would be 100% VT but then you don’t get foreign tax credits.
https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/...
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Author: rayvt 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 15055 
Subject: Re: Favor - request for help
Date: 05/17/2025 8:50 AM
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VT greatly underperforms.

You can add to or modify the testfolio link I posted (VT is too short, so use VTSIM).

Portfolio Visualizer shows the same thing. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset...




Thanks for mentioning VT. I've had VT as a low key thing to consider maybe someday, but never looked closely at it.
Now that I have run backtest comparisons with VT, it's now in my "never" basket. **shudder**

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Author: sykesix 🐝🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 15055 
Subject: Re: Favor - request for help
Date: 05/17/2025 4:23 PM
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The general advice is that you want a certain percentage of international exposure. But I don't think you do. Foreign companies just aren't as good at returning money to shareholders as US companies.
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Author: AdrianC 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 15055 
Subject: Re: Favor - request for help
Date: 05/18/2025 9:05 AM
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“The general advice is that you want a certain percentage of international exposure. But I don't think you do. Foreign companies just aren't as good at returning money to shareholders as US companies.”

They’re generally cheaper, so maybe that compensates?

For someone who is not interested in analysis owning the whole shooting match seems to be the best option. Own all of it. Let the market figure out.

From my perspective, US based with dual citizenship, having everything in one country never seemed prudent.
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Author: rayvt 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 15055 
Subject: Re: Favor - request for help
Date: 05/18/2025 10:23 AM
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What is the point of having a significant ex-US companies?
* To have a company that is headquartered outside of the USA?
* To have a company which does business and gets revenue from non-US countries?

When I go to an Italian or Mexican restaurant, I don't care if the cooks were born in Italy or Mexico. I want the food to be typical of that country.

Google "XXX non-us business share",
with XXX the name of the top few holdings of the S&P 500.


"Apple's business is significantly international, with a majority of its revenue coming from outside the United States. "

"Microsoft's non-US business share is a significant portion of its revenue,"

"Nvidia's non-US business represents a significant portion of its overall revenue, with key markets in Asia and Europe. "

"In the first quarter of 2025, Amazon's non-US business, represented by the International segment, accounted for approximately 21.5% of the company's total net sales. "

"Meta's business is significantly international, with a substantial portion of its revenue and user base coming from outside the US and Canada.
...
Meta derives about 55% of its revenue from outside the U.S. and Canada. May 5, 2025"


With large companies, you are already getting a very large exposure of revenue that comes from non-US sources. You don't really need VEA or ACWX.

My reason for investing is to make the largest amount of money. The backtests I posted tell me that investments in a specific ex-US fund are contrary to that goal. They get you exposure that you already have and they reduce your returns.
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Author: ajm101   😊 😞
Number: of 15055 
Subject: Re: Favor - request for help
Date: 05/21/2025 1:00 AM
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Thanks for all the replies. It is certainly food for thought. I am surprised by just how much the pure S&P 500 approach outperformed the others. I appreciate the backtest link, I had considered a small cap etf allocation, too, and am significantly reconsidering it after using testfol.io. I'm squeamish at this valuation, but don't have any high commitment alternatives other than putting some percentage in BRK.B.

I might just go with the Buffett advice of 90% a very low cost S&P fund and 10% in short term US bonds (VOO and one of SHV, SGOV, BSV? tbd). I'd considered it before asking here.

Along with the small cap etf (IJR,IRS) idea I was considering, I'd considered something more conservative like GLD or a TIPS etf. I still can't stomach cryptocurrency, though. It has not been a joyful process to re-evaluate some assumpitons of my longer term financial plans this year.
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Author: AdrianC 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 15055 
Subject: Re: Favor - request for help
Date: 05/21/2025 8:07 AM
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If you want to add in small cap value, and keep it simple, I think this is a good solution:

Avantis All Equity Markets Value ETF
https://www.avantisinvestors.com/avantis-investmen...

60/40 US/International.
Large and small value.
This is the Avantis take on "value", which is a combination of traditional value and high profitability -
"companies trading at lower valuations with higher profitability ratios".


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