I just lurk on this site, I like reading the commentary, but I personally don't like to argue, it's just not my thing. But more power to all of the regular posters, it is interesting reading and thinking about your opinions.

This Gallup site shows that as of Jan-2024, the voter breakdown is as follows:
news.gallup.com - Party affiliation

Repub: 25%, Independent: 45%, Dem: 27%
( As an aside, those #'s don't add up to 100%, don't know what the remaining 3% consider
themselves )

It also shows the leanings of the Independents:
43% lean GOP, 46% lean Dem.

It will be the Independents that will determine the winner in November.
The hatred for Trump will be high motivation for Dems to get out and vote.
The luv for Trump will be high motivation for MAGA to get out and vote.
It is to be determined which way the non-MAGA Repubs will vote.
Not sure if the ambivalence of the Independents toward both of them will motivate all of
them to get out and vote.

My guess is that Biden beats Trump by more than he did in 2020, but that could be
wishful thinking on my part, as I highly despise Trump. I do know people that voted for Trump
in 16 and 20 who now say they will vote against him. They never say they are voting for Biden,
always phrased as voting against Trump.

I do not know anybody who voted for Biden in 2020 that says they will be voting for Trump
this time.

Last 2 paragraphs totally small sample size anecdotes, lol.