No. of Recommendations: 8
A follow-up to my previous post. First off, I want to apologize for that link. I tagged the wrong one, and it was previously posted on this thread by longtermbrk & rayvt, so cudos to you two for bringing that excellent analysis to this thread.
The one I was trying to post is here:
https://youtu.be/Wo0cxs5kYS4?is=nMG5LPSYCYb_ATlpI like this particular analysis as well, because it shows an excellent breakdown of their arrival, showing descent rates and speed. They remained high as long as possible to run emergency checklists, while also preserving fuel, before beginning the wide 270 degree turn that would give them time to get down in a relatively controlled descent. That maneuver allowed them to manage energy and line up with the north runway. That makes perfect sense to me, and how I would envision flying that last segment of the flight with the recorded speeds and descent rates indicated.
The video below is also an excellent take on what we know so far. I am pretty much in perfect lockstep with Captain Steve’s take on the accident. Although it’s possible, I do disagree somewhat with one of his suggestions that the crew could have departed their origin without enough fuel. I give these guys a lot more credit than that. Most crews are going to conservatively assess their fuel needs during pre-flight planning, for all contingencies. Each pilot would double/triple check with each other, as well as with dispatch, to make sure they are all in perfect agreement with the needed fuel to make the trip, including considerations about weather en-route. According to the weather analysis, the conditions were clear skies and light winds, with little possibility of any significant deviations around T-storms en-route. NTSB will be looking at everything, mechanical issues, as well as planning mistakes, because most accidents do have some degree of human error attached to a link in the chain of events leading to the accident. If a fuel leak occurred, then maybe someone left a fuel cap off, which can lead back to an oversight on the preflight walk-around inspection. Or, if there was an internal leak, or some other mechanical issue that inhibited the uninterrupted flow of fuel to the engines, then maybe there was a scheduled maintenance inspection that was delayed or missed. Or, if there was bad fuel contamination,(sand, sediment, ask me how I know?), then that should have been caught during quality control testing during the refueling process. There are any number of things that can go wrong, and often times, it undoubtedly circles back to some form of human error. Jury is still out, and hopefully the NTSB will arrive a good summary sooner, rather than later, especially since the surviving pilots and their testimony will be crucial in the final report.
https://youtu.be/ATR4cV56x0Y?is=Y8li-NhyFKjNXa4F 