No. of Recommendations: 8
On the Berkshire board I made a wild speculation that one sector Mr Buffett might deploy capital into, at some point, is the big international liquor companies.
They are generally extremely good bets over the very long haul, but down a huge amount because of their highly visible exposure to tariffs. (and worries that the world will stop drinking).
Diago DGE:LSE, 34% off its high. Not doing great lately, in a number of different ways. 3.9% div.
Campari CPR:MIL, 49% off its high. 1.2% yield. Most expensive on trailing P/E at 30.8.
Pernod Ricard RI:PAR, 46% off its high Least exposed of these four to US tariffs. 5.3% div.
Remy Cointreau RCO:PAR, 62% off its high. Most exposed of these four to US tariffs. 4.6% div. Cheapest on trailing P/E at 13.5.
Here's a recently published estimate of their hits to earnings with 25% tariffs from Canada and 10% form the EU and UK. (depending on what time it is, that's not far off the current situation, though EU is at 20%)
Diageo, 8% hit to pre-tariff earnings
Campari, 8% hit to pre-tariff earnings
Pernod, 3% hit to pre-tariff earnings
Remy, 19% hit to pre-tariff earnings
I suspect a slate of all four purchased during this bear market will give satisfactory returns in the years to come.
Jim
[no position]
