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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: mungofitch ✹✺🐝 SILVER
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Number: of 6243 
Subject: Timing and the 2 year rate
Date: 09/11/26 10:04 AM
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I think it is lost to the old boards, but I believe there was once a discussion of a timing signal that said something along the lines of "if the 2-year T-bill rate rises more than 0.5% in a short period, it's a strong bear warning".
Anybody remember that?

As with any timing signal it may or may not be reliable, but if it has any utility it would definitely be now. The 2-year rate is up more than a full point in just over 6 months.
stockcharts.com: SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

If I were in the US, the 5 year TIPS yield at inflation + about 2.2% would look pretty tempting as a place to park money waiting for equity prices to look more tempting. If many people thought that way, it would cause some selling at the margins...

Jim
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This community has written 6,224 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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