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Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 670 
Subject: Re: Full disclosure
Date: 09/19/2023 2:52 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Nothing I've seen suggests the basic model is broken, and there's obvious cyclical macro pressures affecting margins. This too shall pass.

That's pretty much my thinking too, and I bought some more at a little under $113, now a 2.5% position for me.

At today's price, their market cap is $25b, which is almost exactly 11x the average net income of the last 3 (pandemic-assisted) years, or, if you prefer, 15x the previous 3 years' average net income of $1.6b. Given their growth in store count and inflation, I think it's reasonable to estimate that, without the pandemic boost, they might have 'just' had their usual 8-10% growth, so the $1.6b could have been $2.1b, putting them at 12x covid-free earnings.

In the current market, 12x steadily growing earnings for a company with what seems to be a pretty good moat, in a recession resistant industry , with relatively shareholder-friendly, seems to me like a very attractive price.

Regards, DTB
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