Post #13750 by rayvt on the US Policy board

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Well, darn, somebody wrote in a post here that the US economy was perhaps artificially boosted after WW2 because all the other countries got hugely damaged. That condition is far in the past, so maybe the US returns will sink back to "normal".

But I couldn't find that post to tack on this as a reply, so I had to make a new post. Sorry.

Since I have the S&P 500 data in a spreadsheet it is easy enough to test that conjecture. "If we start the backtest right after the end of WW2, is the long-term return abnormally high?"

Here's the data:
S&P 500, all dividends reinvested.

2/5/1950 - 3/4/2024
11.4%     CAGR
10.6%     Slope
-51%      MaxDD
1.05      Sortino
15%       stdev

1/3/1960 - 3/4/2024
10.2%     CAGR
10.6%     Slope
-51%      MaxDD
0.88      Sortino
16%       stdev

1/11/1970 - 3/4/2024
10.7%     CAGR
11.1%     Slope
-51%      MaxDD
0.93      Sortino
16%       stdev

1/6/1980 - 3/4/2024
11.9%     CAGR
10.5%     Slope
-51%      MaxDD
1.03      Sortino
16%       stdev

It looks like the answer is: Perhaps a bit, but not really much.

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What's really sad is that those posters actually want the US economy to do poorly (orange man bad!). Of course when the deportations first started those same "experts" told us that no one would be left to pick and gather the food and that store shelves would be empty...huge supply shortages! The stores where I live (Midwest) must not have gotten their memo because not only are the shelves loaded with product and also additional boxes in the storage areas below the display. UCMTSU

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If MAXDD stand for maximum drawdown, it seems odd that each period = 51% precisely

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If MAXDD stand for maximum drawdown, it seems odd that each period = 51% precisely

That's the 2008/2009 bear market. Which is in all the posted periods.

BTW, I don't use the typical "drop from highest peak". I use "drop from the highest of the last 52 weeks".

The thing about the statistic "maximum drawdown" is that it was the single worst event that ever happened.

That one week was in the midst of a string of weeks in the -40% to -45% range.

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"What's really sad is that those posters actually want the US economy to do poorly"

It isn't as sad as the fact that you are incapable of voicing what they actually want so you just make up dumb strawmen and pretend it is what they want. It isn't very credible.

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