”AI is coming for every job. The industrial revolution created new jobs.”

A lot depends on your time frame, how fast the change is coming, and whether you understand the change or are just reacting to it.

French historian Fernand Braudel identified three cycles of history. The shortest is the day-to-day flow of events; Braudel called them “fireflies” on the stage. Next up are paradigm shifts — like the end of the Cold War — that can play out over decades or longer. Finally, there’s the longue durée: the bedrock of climate and geography that shapes everything else and changes only over centuries or millennia. The Bronze Age Collapse is a good example.

AI - the latest phase of the Digital Revolution, is not merely a firefly, but it is itself probably only a paradigm shift. Like the personal computer. It ain’t going anywhere, but the winners and losers are not yet clear. And it’s probably only a phase: we don’t know what’s next, although quantum computing shows promise. The stakes are high.

People say WEB was a master capital allocator, which is true. But above all he was a master manager of risk. That’s why BRK is still my largest holding. Safety first, growth second. Onward!

abromber