No. of Recommendations: 8
Oh, we're really going to have to agree to disagree on this point. A weak Russia that depends on China secures favorable terms for China in terms
So? Russia's weaker if it gets loses in Ukraine than if it wins. China hasn't been providing guns, money or dudes to Russia to help bail them out of the mess they're in. They've been buying their energy because it's in their interests to buy tons of energy from Russia - but they don't give a mousefart in a hurricane whether Ukraine is Russian territory or its own country.
Which is radically different from the EU, which cares immensely about the specific outcome in the conflict.
China can buy oil anywhere it wants. They get 19% of their oil from Putin right now.
Yeah, and China can sell their stuff anywhere it wants, too. Only 14% of China's exports go to the U.S., after all. But you seem to acknowledge that that's a big enough percentage to throw a monkey wrench into the Chinese economy. The same is true of oil supplies. You can't replace 2.2 million bpd in a heartbeat. No one's got that kind of production volume/tanker capacity sitting around idle, any more than anyone's got the kind of surplus import demand lying around either.
You're the one who keeps saying "make the Russians leave" so I don't see how you're trying to reverse that and put it on me. The fact of the matter is that they've achieved a stalemate of sorts on the front lines and need to do something to break the deadlock.
I'm not putting anything on you. My position is that we don't need to do anything to break the deadlock. We're making adequate progress in "make the Russians leave" with the current strategy. Just like they did in Afghanistan, they'll stay until they can't stay any more - and then they'll go. We're "punching Putin" just fine by imposing whacking big sanctions, even though they're not complete or perfect, and by having the Ukrainians constantly grinding up his military personnel and equipment at 2x or more the rate of the Ukrainian side.
You don't want to acknowledge that "never stop fighting Russia" is not only the just and moral thing to do, given their depredation and theft, but it's an effective strategy. If Ukraine doesn't ever stop fighting Russia, Russia will have to leave. That's they asymmetry that has helped the invaded nation prevail over the invading nation in countless scenarios. The invaders can leave, the invaded cannot. But you're so hung up on the idea that unless there's something visible happening in the moment, then that means that the West's military goals aren't being advanced.
