Always keep in mind that one million times zero equals zero.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 2
I don't have much to say here, but they are down 60% from their 52 week high in Dec 2023.
I find it difficult to make a case for them, personally. The have been gutted like a fish in high end compute workload budgets by NVIDIA and they have gotten bad press with issues in gen 13, 14 cpus related to power levels (though they've stated a patch is expected this month)
Their foundry assets are attractive, and a geopolitical hedge against a Taiwan war.
I don't know how much is fund driven liquidation of positions because of the dividend suspension.
No. of Recommendations: 1
FWIW, VL grades their financial strength a B++. Also, a 3-5 yr price target of 40-65, somewhere between a double and triple from the current price of $21.
John
No. of Recommendations: 4
Also, a 3-5 yr price target of 40-65, somewhere between a double and triple from the current price of $21.
I think they will likely revise that target range downwards, given the most recent round of rather terrible news, which I think came out after VL's last (June 21) revision of the INTC data page. I wasn't expecting a good year at Intel, but the outlook is really impressively terrible, well beyond the worst case guesses of most people.
I think perhaps the latest big swoon in stock price has been magnified due to cancelling the dividend, since perhaps there was a large population of holders who were thinking "sure things haven't gone well lately, but to heck with the price, at least I'm getting my coupons until they recover". But with zero coupon? As those folks leave the building, and it's not a small population, a whole new set of shareholders has to be found to replace them. While that takes place, there is reason to suspect the price will unusually weak--the leavers are pushing on the door, and the entrants are thin on the ground.
If looking for a silver lining, it's possible that the price weakness during that process of shareholder replacement is temporary, and (barring any new bad news, always possible) the price might settle somewhat higher once they income folks have finished selling. Much like the usual weak price you see for a while on a small spinoff: the main shareholders couldn't be bothered with a small position in a business they weren't really interested in, so they all ditch it at the same time. Then the new smaller stock gets known for itself, and has a new audience.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 6
Funny... my father received a phD in physics from Stanford in 1973. A few of his colleagues in the department went on to join Intel in the early 1970's when it was only several years old. They became wealthy because of that decision. I remember that sometime before the huge 2000-1 bubble ,they told my father they were selling out of the company because they did not believe in its future. That sell price must have been less than $10 per share and there was probably only one, maybe two, more 2:1 splits were left in its future. Seeing the current share price, it seems they were right, and there were substantially far better investments for the next 25 years.
Smufty
