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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: rayvt 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: How about this for a strategy
Date: 06/01/25 11:13 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 3
It's a strange thing. The numbers do show incredible performance with buy and hold, but everyone I speak to, including professionals say it is a trading vehicle only. I will pass on the strategy. Also, those numbers are for this market cycle only.

These 2X & 3X leveraged ETFs have huge volatility and huge drawdowns.

Professionals that run funds who have customers can't have these because the customers would not be okay with that volatility and losses.

In fact, MOST people would not be okay with that high volatility and losses. Probably depends on the start date, too. A start on the peaks at 9/1/18 or 2/1/20 or 12/1/22 would have given a quick -50% loss. Pretty had to explain to the wife that you just lost half the money in 3 months.

In a way, these return statistics are reminiscent to the "6/3 options" strategy. AFAIK, Elan is the only one you has been using that for the last 20-30 years. He said that the overall return has been great but knowing when to hold them and when to fold them is critical.

You could only do this with a small portion of your total portfolio. And if it's just a small portion, even eyepoping returns won't make much difference in the overall portfolio.

Also, those numbers are for this market cycle only.

All too true. I don't think any of them were around for the 2008/2009 bear market. I guess you could perhaps simulate it if you had the daily returns of QQQ & SPY. Then you could go back to 2000.
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