No. of Recommendations: 5
Jim once called this "My favorite chart" or so:
Google: File D 18WexgXb68oh8jk4ZmFLidODyRp7goycPlease compare it with an S&P 10-year-chart:
Google: File D 18XYbJDFegwWZcLFYIuj9qGGUGaiwvmelThey couldn't be more perfectly in synch.
I didn't mark this post "OT" because if they continue to be in synch it would be dramatic not only for holders of a highly valued S&P but for everybody, Berkshire shareholders not excluded.
Perfect support for this: While super-conservative me's cash the last year's was always 20-25% of net assets, it's now only 14%. I am practically fully invested in stocks and with horror thanks to those charts are becoming aware of a frightening fact: That after all those bull years my view completely changed, that I am only looking for the highest returns as if positive returns are to be taken for granted, with the thought of a bear market - contrary to the last years - not even coming to my mind anymore.
The same goes for this board. Years ago we discussed intensly "How much longer can the bull last?", "Is Grantham finally right?", "The S&P has to half to get back to historical valuations" etc. And now? Who is Grantham? Nothing like that any more. All those bull years wiped out those serious concerns which were on our minds after the first really extreme bull years. Typical for us humans: We get used to anything if it lasts just long enough - and then we take it for granted.
As more I think about it as more I come to the conclusion that nobody, not me, not this board sees the danger of a really(?) big and long bear anymore. We may play with that thought - but it's just playing, not really serious concerns as we had just a few years ago. And that's for me the sign to get off the train.
It's time for me to follow that adage "You have to get rich only once" mentioned shortly ago here, which I interpret as ".... after that you only have to stay rich", and to heavily reduce my exposure and to increase my cash at least to the levels it was when we all really seriously were concerned about "How much longer can the bull last?"
