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Some of you may remember, back in the first years of the fool, a poster by the name of Mike Shedlock. He went by the screen name “Mishedlo”. He’s an old style libertarian, got in trouble at the fool for his strident posts over the Iraq war, and was banned from the fool about 20 years ago.

But no worries for Mike. He went on to significant success as a financial blogger with his “Mish Talk” blog. I still read him occasionally and today, he reposted a letter that I swear could have been written by Dope or one of his twins, voicing disgust at how this tariff debacle is playing out. The perspective is “conservative” and may explain the thinking of many reluctant supporters of Trump who now consider the tariff rollout a disaster:

The frustrating part is that I was on board for a reset. Truly. I’ve said it publicly. I’ve written about it in this very feed. I understood the need for a detox. For decades, the U.S. economy played the part of the rich guy at the table — picking up the check for a global order that no longer worked in our favor. We hollowed out our industrial base. We enabled unfair trade imbalances under the illusion of diplomacy. We subsidized demand for cheap imports while outsourcing the hard questions about how our domestic workforce would adapt.
Eventually, that had to stop. It was unsustainable — financially, politically, and morally. We couldn’t keep pretending that a consumption-led economy held together by zero-interest rates and global fragility was a long-term solution. I wanted a rebalancing. I welcomed the idea of a harder, smarter America-first policy that pushed for fair treatment, reciprocal agreements, and a real industrial strategy rooted in technological superiority, national security, and capital formation. That would’ve been leadership.
But that’s not what this is.
What you’ve rolled out isn’t detox — it’s whiplash. This isn’t strategic decoupling. It’s scattershot retaliation dressed up as reform. There’s no roadmap. No operational playbook. No clear articulation of where this ends or what the metrics of success even are. It’s not an attempt to responsibly unwind America’s role as the global shock absorber — it’s a brute-force attempt to disorder the existing system with no viable alternative in place.
You can’t replace a fragile supply chain with chaos and call it resilience. You can’t build American industry by torching the scaffolding that underpins capital flows, labor mobility, and global coordination — especially when the U.S. itself no longer has the domestic capacity to meet its own industrial needs. You talk about bringing jobs home, but the U.S. doesn’t have the labor force, permitting structure, or wage flexibility to stand up full-scale manufacturing at speed. And now — after years of deportation policies and underinvestment in vocational training — you’ve made the labor gap even wider.
Capital isn’t going to rush to fill that void just because you raised tariffs. It’s going to wait. It’s going to sit on the sidelines and preserve optionality. Because right now, no CEO can confidently model a five-year capex plan. No board can greenlight supply chain onshoring when they don’t know whether a tariff rate will double next quarter based on your Twitter account or some arbitrary trade deficit formula.
That’s the issue. This wasn’t rolled out as part of a comprehensive American renewal strategy. It wasn’t coordinated with the Fed. It wasn’t communicated clearly to Treasury. It wasn’t backed by a labor reskilling program or any form of public-private manufacturing incentive beyond empty slogans. It was dropped like a bomb — seemingly designed more to shock than to build.

Trump is now making enemies among a group that was formerly on board with his nonsense.


I note that Dope hasn’t posted here in a couple of days. Neither has Mike.

We may think “good!”

But I think their absence, whether it continues or not, is a sign of a major crack developing in the Trump coalition.


Now…… for a bit of humor.



I saw a hand made protest sign held by a woman, that simply read:

Six weeks into this administration, and I’m already using “fuck” like a comma

I am very bemused at the number of so called smart people who are just now realizing that
Trump is a loose cannon. As Homer Simpson would say Duh !

I've read a few articles on Mish's new ( to me ) blog, and the associated comments. About
95% of comments were ALWAYS pro Trump, Libs need to be ignored, trust the process type views. Mish has next to zero credibility with me. I was reading him for a contrarian take, as in whatever he writes, the opposite is more likely to be true.

I do try to read the conservatives opinions. The Country definitely needs at least 2
political party's. But the MAGA GOP is not one of them.

I see the markets are coming up from the days lows. Not surprised by this, this is just part
of this extended bumpy ride we'll be on. Not ready to put money back in, still currently
satisfied with the return of my principal, not worried about return on principal.

Trump gonna have a right wing pep rally tomorrow, that should be fun, lol.

I am very bemused at the number of so called smart people who are just now realizing that
Trump is a loose cannon. As Homer Simpson would say Duh !

I believe it's "D'oh!" 😊

I've posted here. Unafraid as usual......

And I'm the entire Trump Coalition.

We are stronger than ever.

We're gonna win a 3rd term, and - the gum-ball machine industry in America is gonna sell those gum-ball-machines into other countries without tariff.

I note that Dope hasn’t posted here in a couple of days. Neither has Mike.

We may think “good!”

But I think their absence, whether it continues or not, is a sign of a major crack developing in the Trump coalition.


Crack in the coalition? Maybe. Maybe not. I've also been extremely busy at work.
I saw the name 'Shedlock' and thought, wow, that rings a bell...thanks for connecting the dots. Used to go round and round with him back in the day.

My fundamental problem here is the level of risk tolerance. I'm fond of using the term "Blast radius" to describe the potential for collateral damage when undertaking an action. Meaning: if you can contain the "blast radius" to a fairly small area that's easily fixed then go ahead and take whatever risk you want - it can be cleaned up later.

The Blast Radius from this is bigger than I'm comfortable with.

The other reason for the delay in posting was to see how this played out. There is a very interesting quote from the Europeans today:

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-tarif...

The European Union is “ready to negotiate” with the United States and has offered to scrap tariffs on industrial goods, Ursula Von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said Monday.

Okay. Here's the interesting part:

“Nonetheless, we stand ready to negotiate with the United States. Indeed, we have offered zero-for-zero tariffs for industrial goods, as we have successfully done with many other trading partners, because Europe is always ready for a good deal,” she said.

So other people have gotten this deal...just not us. Okay, Europe.

Thanks for the reply, Dope.

I’ve kept up with Mike over the years, though barely over the past ten.

I remember you going round and round with him. A mistake that many made back then was assuming that Mike’s opposition to the Iraq war was due to liberalism. But it wasn’t. He’s a hardcore libertarian and that becomes evident on his economics blog.

Interesting guy- stubborn, dedicated to his work, and tends toward the doctrinaire. Can quote Hayek and Rothbard at the drop of a hat. I consider him the saner version of laissezfaireone, if you remember him.

Back in 2015 he asked me if I wanted to attend a Trump rally with him in Chicago. I politely declined.

As for “blast radius”, that’s been one of Trump’s problem’s from the beginning, on just about every subject.


We’re finding out he tends to leave smoking blast craters in his wake


Anyway- back to the maelstrom.

Peace,
Bill Z

So other people have gotten this deal...just not us. Okay, Europe.

I suspect we won't take that deal. Even if Trump weren't so dedicated to mercantilism, we're not zeroing out our steel or automobile import duties under any administration.

As we've discussed before, it's hard to figure out what the Administration is trying to accomplish with the tariffs. If they're trying to reduce trade deficits for their own sake, then they're not going to cut deals like this. So too if their goal is to raise revenue or reshape the global economy. But if the goal is to actually eliminate other countries' tariffs and NTB's, then they might actually enter into negotiations to accomplish that - but the net effect of it would be to increase international trade and globalization, not decrease it.

Dope1: Okay. Here's the interesting part:

“Nonetheless, we stand ready to negotiate with the United States. Indeed, we have offered zero-for-zero tariffs for industrial goods, as we have successfully done with many other trading partners, because Europe is always ready for a good deal,” she said.

So other people have gotten this deal...just not us. Okay, Europe.

Umm, what now?

Actually, here's the interesting part (which, of course, you neglected):

Asked when the EU tabled the zero-tariff offer, von der Leyen said the offer was made “long before” Trump’s latest tariff announcement and “repeatedly, for example, in the automotive sector.” She stressed that the EU has long gone “zero for zero with other countries that also have a strong automotive sector.”

So it was offered to us but dimwit wanted his Tariffpalooza.

Mish quoted me on his blog long time ago. I was famous.

I suspect we won't take that deal.

Well, that didn't take long:

Trump is rejecting the European Union’s offer of “zero-for-zero” tariffs with the U.S. for industrial goods.

“No, it’s not,” Trump said in the Oval Office when asked if the deal, which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen floated earlier Monday, was enough.

“They’re screwing us on trade,” Trump said, criticizing the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/trump-tariffs-live...

What you’ve rolled out isn’t detox — it’s whiplash. This isn’t strategic decoupling. It’s scattershot retaliation dressed up as reform. There’s no roadmap. No operational playbook. No clear articulation of where this ends or what the metrics of success even are. It’s not an attempt to responsibly unwind America’s role as the global shock absorber — it’s a brute-force attempt to disorder the existing system with no viable alternative in place.

Well, Mish. What the hell did you expect? Did you not pay attention to the first Trump administration? Did you see any skills that even remotely resembled what you suggest was needed?

Of course you didn't. Trump isn't capable of any of these things. You voted for a pig thinking it could be dressed up to look and sing like a jaybird. Now you've got your pig and he isn't even close to what you want.

Thanks for nothing. Worse. Thanks for ruining the country. You are a smart guy - that's clear. So why were you so taken in by this charlatan? Where was your analysis of his skills mistaken? Can you even admit that you were flat out wrong in your choice?

To quote Musk, GFYITF.

--Peter

Yah, I remember Midhedlo, and I liked his posts and read his blog for a while. Never knew the circumstances under which he he left.

To quote Musk, GFYITF

Great acronym

Where did he post this? So we can all tell him "what did you *think* was going to happen?"

Where did he post this? So we can all tell him "what did you *think* was going to happen?"

It matches this X post by someone calling himself Shay Boloor:

https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/19085061342706...

Where did he post this…


https://mishtalk.com/economics/an-open-letter-to-t...

Great acronym

Thank you. I spent hours and hours trying to come up with it. ;-)

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