No. of Recommendations: 4
Nice strawman. I don't know anyone who has claimed that the market is overvalued every year since 2011 Let me introduce you to Jim :) Not denying that he has made many valuable contributions that we are all grateful for. But here's just a sampling of what he's claimed every year since 2011. ..
My favorite is his post in 2018 where he advised everyone NOT to invest in an index fund because that would be the same as having a note on our backs saying "kick me" :)
mungofitch in
2011 wrote:
"I think we could see quite a large sell-off, perhaps in several legs. I estimate that the S&P500 is more than 50% overvalued at the moment, higher than the final highest peak of the 1960's secular bull market."
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y... mungofitch in
2012 wrote:
"... so you end up with the total [market] overvaluation of approximately 38% compared with historical norms. Let's say "almost certainly 30%-45% overvalued" to allow for error bars."
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...mungofitch in
2013 said, and I kid you not:
"If one also recognizes the overvaluation of the market right now and the length of the serious investing career of a typical investor, it's probably a very good rule of thumb simply to assume that US stock prices will
never rise further. In real terms, the S&P might well be at the same level in 20-25 years.
[Yes, he really said the above. See link below.]
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y... mungofitch in
2014 said:
"Things definitely ain't cheap: certainly more expensive than average on almost any look-back time frame and valuation metric.
As a result, future average-stock returns are likely to be modest at best from here. ... So, in that one narrow sense, if there was ever a bubble before, then this must be one too.
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...mungofitch in
2015 said:
"My own view is that the broad US stock market is definitely overvalued. For example, the median P/S among the largest 400 non-financial S&P 500 firms hit a fresh all time high on Friday. Using that yardstick, the typical non-financial S&P firm is 78% overvalued compared to its typical valuation level since 1986 and 55% overvalued compared to typical since 1997."
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...mungofitch in
2016 said:
"The one thing that he seems to be right about, in this case, is that stock valuations are plainly so high right now that medium-long run forward returns for the broad US market are guaranteed to be sub-par starting from here. ... Using last-full-year sales, the median P/S metric is 54% above its average since 1986."
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...mungofitch in
2017 said:
"Using the same approach with a decade of trailing P/E ratios instead of forward estimates, you get [the market is] 31% overvalued relative to the average multiple in the last decade. Those two approaches suggest that with typical "modern era" pricing levels you would expect the S&P to be more in the range of S&P 1795-1865 versus ~2350 today."
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...mungofitch in
2018 said:
"I wouldn't touch the *typical* S&P 500 stock with a ten foot pole right now, and would certainly advise anyone and everyone NOT to start a long term buy and hold of SPY these days. Might as well put a note on your back that says "kick me".
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...mungofitch in
2019 said:
"So, either the S&P 500 is at a new "permanently high plateau" of valuation levels, or it's due for a bad stretch when some of the overvaluation goes away."
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...I'll stop here, but you get the idea. Anyway, time to head to the pool for another margarita.
Cheers!
