No. of Recommendations: 26
...we can’t all be like Jim, nor do I want to be like him. It requires a steep learning curve, and a willingness to dive into a level of complexity that cannot be easily absorbed without a lot of commitment and financial background. No offense to his rich data driven approach, but it’s easy to get lost in the weeds.
A a side comment, I'm actually a big fan of long term buy and hold and largely ignoring the valuation squiggles in the interim, for those who have the time horizon. You're right.
I'm also fine with trading a bit more if it suits one's portfolio goals: juice things a bit by weighting positions from time to time towards those with the best price/value situation, if it suits you and you have the skill to value things to some degree.
The only thing I'm not a fan of is the risks for those who might naively mix the two: ignoring valuation levels as a long term holder might, but then expecting decent returns in the short to medium term without considering valuation levels. For example, at current valuation levels there is no evidence-based reason to think that Berkshire is a good investment pick for time frames of under (say) five years. "Tinkerbell" investing annoys me : )
Back of the envelope: P/B is over 1.75 right now.
Let's say book tracks value reasonably well, and both grow at inflation + 7%/year for years to come. That's a hair low compared to history but perhaps a hair high for the future, so a "middling" expectation.
If the price in four years is 1.4 times book (a hair higher than the average of the last 15 years), that's a return of inflation + 1.1%/year, a bit lower than TIPS are currently offering.
Jim
