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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 21944 
Subject: Re: Please take the OT posts elsewhere
Date: 03/25/25 1:44 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 26
...we can’t all be like Jim, nor do I want to be like him. It requires a steep learning curve, and a willingness to dive into a level of complexity that cannot be easily absorbed without a lot of commitment and financial background. No offense to his rich data driven approach, but it’s easy to get lost in the weeds.

A a side comment, I'm actually a big fan of long term buy and hold and largely ignoring the valuation squiggles in the interim, for those who have the time horizon. You're right.
I'm also fine with trading a bit more if it suits one's portfolio goals: juice things a bit by weighting positions from time to time towards those with the best price/value situation, if it suits you and you have the skill to value things to some degree.

The only thing I'm not a fan of is the risks for those who might naively mix the two: ignoring valuation levels as a long term holder might, but then expecting decent returns in the short to medium term without considering valuation levels. For example, at current valuation levels there is no evidence-based reason to think that Berkshire is a good investment pick for time frames of under (say) five years. "Tinkerbell" investing annoys me : )

Back of the envelope: P/B is over 1.75 right now.
Let's say book tracks value reasonably well, and both grow at inflation + 7%/year for years to come. That's a hair low compared to history but perhaps a hair high for the future, so a "middling" expectation.
If the price in four years is 1.4 times book (a hair higher than the average of the last 15 years), that's a return of inflation + 1.1%/year, a bit lower than TIPS are currently offering.

Jim
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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