The last 2 weeks have seen a downturn that seems to put an end to the recent megacap-tech driven bull run. This might even be one time that the Hindenburg Omen (strong signals from 6/10-6/24/26) actually was worth watching.

This week, the "above 20d & above 50d" trend signals on the Naz, S&P & Emerging (driven by strong semi pullback) followed last week's PAMA 50 and NHNL into bearish states. The oil- and conflict-driven pricing spikes and defense spending drove the 10 and 5 year yields up and also put the corporate bond index signal into bearish. PPO (MACD) daily has been universally bearish for 2 weeks, and the PAMA5-10d signals have also flipped.

A chandelier exit signal tripped on momentum-focused funds such as MTUM and SPMO, driven by the semi decline. Emerging Markets has quickly flipped into a correction with a -10%+ drop from recent highs.

Strong trending tech stocks as of the end of June have been beaten up this month.
Bottom line, the market has slipped reasonably quickly from an "optimistic" state into a neutral-pessimistic state.

I have retreated to 65% bond OEFs/CEFs, 25% equities and 10% cash - with almost 1/2 of the equities in specialty long/short active ETFs.

FC