Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (16) |
Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: 135% return on mungofitch's "esoteric op
Date: 12/28/24 4:53 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 13
Thus, for most people the best way to invest is dollar cost averaging into spy.

For a long term "one click" strategy I think one can improve on that while keeping all the simplicity: if one is saving regularly, dollar cost average into a non-cap-weight index fund such as RSP.

It has a tiny fraction of the company specific risk of SPY. Top 3 positions in SPY make up 19.9% of the total portfolio at a weighted average P/E of 42.8, versus 0.6% in RSP which has an overall P/E of 19.0. Those biggies deserve a premium valuation level...but I doubt it's that much.

And equal weight has better returns over the long run and in most (but certainly not all) five year periods. You're never overweight the current big bubble stocks so you'll lag SPY in the occasional gigacap upswings like the last 1990s and lately, but generally do better the rest of the time.

And it's still just one purchase.

That falls into the category of "do what I say, not what I do". I have in effect built my own equal weight index fund, picking ~75 big stocks with what MI tells me have slightly better than average economic characteristics. I've only been running it with real money since March, but it's doing OK. I have a drag from a small cash allocation and from high taxes on dividends, but the net portfolio balance after tax is beating my benchmark (RSP) so far by 1.70%/year rate. The advantage would be 2.10%/year rate without counting the dividend taxes. Very early days, but consistent with the small advantage I'd expect from the backtests.

Perhaps the best argument *against* buying an index fund is rarely mentioned:
If there are any companies at all that you would not invest in because it is against your ethics, or even just a matter of taste, or of risk, then you can't play the index game. There are some firms that I find odious, and I'm not willing to take the risk inherent in companies domiciled in certain jurisdictions, so I have a short black list I use to filter my quant picks before looking at any other criteria.

Jim
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
Non-Mag7 screen · 34 recs · 2025
OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (16) |


Announcements
Mechanical Investing FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community