No. of Recommendations: 4
If all elected seats are held, there are 536-537 elected federal officials at any one time: 435 Representatives, 100 Senators, a President and a VP (who is debatably elected, as it's an anointed position by the winning Presidential nominee).
In another nineteen months, 435 plus 35 (33 regular and two special elections) = 87% of the entire lot of federal officials will be on ballots in one place or another.
IMO, It generally takes 6 months for a new administration to leave definite fingerprints on the life of a typical citizen, and maybe 18 for the full agenda to be enacted - but given how much quicker this administration has been in falling off the horse a few moments after the gate opens, I think it fair that this will be a more conclusive referendum than most.
I'm trying to withhold permanent conclusions until then.
-- sutton
also anticipating a shooting war with someone about a fight we picked come summer 2026 if the pre-election polls are too troublesome for the current administration
No. of Recommendations: 1
But how many of those elections realistically are "contested"? There are a lot of people who would choose flaying over voting for one party or the other. I suspect most of those 470 are "safe", no matter what happens in the world.
Hopefully, Congress grows some cajones and asserts themselves on tariffs. I'll believe it when I see it (e.g. Johnson may not allow it to the floor). But almost no one wants to see an economic meltdown, no matter which party is in control.
