No. of Recommendations: 18
What are the odds the Ukrainians are going to push the Russians out?Depends on what Putin is willing to agree to in order to end the war. The odds are zero if Ukraine goes to the negotiating table agreeing that Russia gets to keep 100% of the territory they've got (plus all their other war aims). The odds are higher if Ukraine goes to the table committed to continuing the fight unless Russia gives them
something in exchange for peace. And the odds of Russia having to agree to something more than just "we get everything we have" go up very high indeed if the US and EU continue to support Ukraine.
I don't often agree with Mitch McConnell, but:
McConnell, who has devoted his final two years in the Senate to pushing back against the isolationists in his party, said that hoping that “appeasement will check the ambitions” of Putin is “as naďve today as it was in 1939,” referring to western Europe’s initial hesitancy in standing up to Nazi Germany.
“America is right to seek an end to this war, but an end that fails to constrain Russian ambition, ensure Ukrainian sovereignty, or strengthen American credibility with both allies and adversaries is no end at all,” he warned.
“Instead, such a hollow peace would invite further aggression,” he said. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5161804-mcconn...So no, after the carnage of the first 2, they don't want a Round 3 on the continent.I'm sure they don't - and the fact that countries don't desire war has never stopped war from happening. Because countries have other aims and objectives and needs
other than just avoiding war, and sometimes those end up ruling the day....and a minor dispute becomes a minor skirmish becomes a contained dispute becomes a broader conflict becomes a significant multiparty war. The peace we enjoy doesn't automatically continue if we stop doing the things that secure that peace - and providing security guarantees to Europe is a
massive reason why the EU is peaceful.
You really think the Chinese are giving you accurate numbers of their defense spending?????Those aren't jus the Chinese numbers. Outside estimates give it a similar range, roughly half that of the U.S.
Which is (again) about where the non-US members of NATO are. The US spends about $800 billion on defense, they spend about $400 billion. Which is a
massive amount of defense spending. Superpower level of defense spending, collectively. You can argue whether they should spend more, because their economy
could support more - but this fanciful notion you have that non-US NATO spending is
minimal is just flat-out wrong.
I think this is not an accurate statement.I know you do, because it doesn't match your beliefs about defense spending of other countries. But it's true. Non-US NATO military spending is more than $400 billion (or at least it was in 2023, and it's certainly higher now with support for Ukraine). An amount that exceeds (or worst case
rivals) the spending of global superpower China. It's either the second- or third-largest military expenditure on earth. That doesn't jibe with the idea that the other NATO nations are just free-riding on the US, so you don't believe it. Because you want to keep believing that none of them (except maybe Poland) are materially contributing to their own defense. But that belief is false.
