I agree Trump won't be POTUS again, unless something crazy happen in the next 14 months (e.g. a Depression). Too many people will be motivated to vote against him, just like in 2020. His base will show up, of course. Just like they did in 2020.

He may not survive to do any jail time. The courts move slowly, and apparently in GA, even more so. He could die of old age before seeing the inside of a cell. He's already pretty old.

Given the care in crafting charges that they can support with evidence, I tend to think your numbers are reasonably accurate (even if not all counts...it is my understanding that they slap a count for every element of the crime, but they seldom get all counts). Maybe a tad high. But if he lives long enough, he will be convicted of at least a few of the charges.