Invest your own money, let compound interest be your leverage, and avoid debt like the plague.
- Manlobbi
Outskirts of Shrewd'm / Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics
No. of Recommendations: 7
One of my screens picked NVDA about a year ago.
A month or so ago I sold it for a 100+% gain because it kept hitting nosebleed new highs and I was getting scared.
But it was still a screen pick the next month (June), so I bought it at the monthly rebalance. Up 11% from when I sold it, that I missed out on.
Now it's up 19%. Should not have sold it, at most should only have sold enough to rebalance.
Fear & emotions are not your friend in investing.
BRK.B is easier. Never on any screens, just buy it and forget it.
No. of Recommendations: 4
^^..I was getting scared. But it was still a screen pick the next month (June), so I bought it at the monthly rebalance. Up 11% from when I sold it, that I missed out on.^^
I empathize with you and have made the same mistake so many times it can be disheartening. I wrote about this very same thing on the Berkshire Board also where Ben Graham emphasizes the same thing - is was in regard to dollar cost averaging but if he was asked about Mechanical Investing I really think he would have given the same answer because, in summary, it isn't the success of the system that counts so much as whether you can follow it consistently for 10-20 years.
https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=472401324Graham's answer about following dollar cost averaging: "I think there is no doubt, that if you put same amount of money in market year after one has a great chance of coming out ahead regardless of when he begins, and particularly regardless if he should begin now. You have to allow for the human nature factor, that no man can really say definitely know how he's going to behave over the next 10 to 20 years, and there is danger that people start with the idea of being systematic investors over the next 10 to 20 years, and may change their attitude as the market fluctuates. In the first instance, put more money into the market because they become speculators, and secondly get disgusted and scared and don't buy at all later on when prices get low. It's a psychological danger. The fault is not in the stars or in the system, but in ourselves".
No. of Recommendations: 6
No. of Recommendations: 2
From a (subscription) writer at seekingalpha just now:
"The superlatives are getting ridiculous. The top 3 names in the market, Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL), make up 21.5% of the entire S&P 500.
I'm already seeing a number of CEFs struggling to move up from here even as the S&P 500 (SPY) and NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) continue to dominate the ETF buy interest and make new all-time highs everyday it seems."
He mentions DNP, YTD NAV up +2.5% but YTD price down -12.7%.
"QQQX should be part of the what's working tier of stocks and funds with MSFT, AAPL and NVDA in its top 3 holdings. But something must be going on here when you still see selling in funds even when they own all the right names.
The bottom line is that the signs of a top and a reversal are accumulating.
I don't know what the trigger might be, but it's going to happen and when that happens, you will probably see a broader market pull back that should finally see ETFs like SPY, QQQ, XLK, and of course, NVDA, MSFT and AAPL pull back too.
"
I think I need to stop reading debbie downers.
No. of Recommendations: 2
I think I need to stop reading debbie downers.
You can get any market prediction you like at Seeking Alpha, although right now there is a lot of pessimism over there. Contrary indicator?
No. of Recommendations: 14
One of my screens picked NVDA about a year ago.
I bought NVDA based on Mungo's ROE_Cash screen almost 4 years ago - 44 months ago to be exact. Total return to date has been 720% (78% CAGR). I've sold small portions twice, not to rebalance, I don't do that any more. But I've needed cash occasionally for RMD withdrawals or to buy new positions. So I sold some of my largest (by far) position. My normal stock position is about 2.5% of the portfolio because I hold 42 stocks. NVDA has grown to about 8%.
If you look at the screen, most of the other usual suspects are there too: GOOG, MSFT, META, AMZN.
Elan
No. of Recommendations: 2
I bought NVDA based on Mungo's ROE_Cash screen almost 4 years ago - 44 months ago to be exact.
I'm honoured to think somebody is using some version of one of my screens : )
Of course I have real cash in this fella too, but that doesn't mean much.
Jim
