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Author: ajm101 ✭🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 3944 
Subject: SpaceX S-1
Date: 05/20/26 9:45 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 10
I don't want to ask for a board for Space-X, but this IPO looks like a mess and this seems like the best place to talk about it. I have questions about it being a going concern in the long term, if the IPO doesn't happen.

The biggest cashflows are from the Anthropic datacenter rental. Equinix is right there if I wanted a datacenter REIT.

And Starlink. EBITDA seems off for measuring a service based on satellites being inexorable drawn into a fiery death in Earth's atmosphere. That feels like a very inflexible form of depreciation.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/00...

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Author: AdrianC ⎊  😊 😞
Number: of 3944 
Subject: Re: SpaceX S-1
Date: 05/21/26 7:07 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Related:

Worker Dies in SpaceX Incident
https://www.isssource.com/worker-dies-in-spacex-in...

The Browsnville Fire Department got the call to Starbase at 4:17 a.m. Friday, according to Chief Jarrett Sheldon, but they were waived off seven minutes later after being advised SpaceX’s emergency medical services were handling the situation.

The sheriff’s department assisted and OSHA has since took over the investigation, said Sheriff Manuel Treviño.
...
OSHA cited and fined SpaceX 17 times since 2021 for workplace safety violations at Starbase and McGregor in Texas as well as its sites in Washington and California.

SpaceX is also facing personal injury lawsuits stemming from safety violations.

Don't know if the injury rate is out of the ordinary for such a large construction. After reading Isaacson's biography of Musk I can see how safety might not be priority one at these facilities.
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Author: sykesix ✶  😊 😞
Number: of 3944 
Subject: Re: SpaceX S-1
Date: 05/21/26 2:41 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 0
And Starlink. EBITDA seems off for measuring a service based on satellites being inexorable drawn into a fiery death in Earth's atmosphere. That feels like a very inflexible form of depreciation.

And in fairly short order too. Starlink satellites have a lifespan of 3-5 years.

EBITDA can be useful for comparing two companies with different tax jurisdiction and leverage decisions, and in some industries (like commercial real estate) depreciation can be kind of phony. But as you point out, depreciation for Starlink satellites is about as real as it gets. The numbers I'd like to see are the operating cash flow and return on equity.

SpaceX estimated the TAM for their services at $28 trillion. Which is roughly 20% of the global economy. They get an A for optimism, no doubt.





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Author: Jimkredux ✭🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 3944 
Subject: Re: SpaceX S-1
Date: 05/21/26 3:12 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 0
They are going to need that TAM. The stock will ipo at over 100 times
REVENUE!Yikes.

Jk
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