rrr12345:
As an example, here is the list of IV estimates that I found for Dec 31, 2012. The document shows a histogram of the estimates as well as a table showing the sources. BV as of Dec 31, 2012 was $114,214, so the average IV
estimate of $175K corresponded to 1.53x Dec 31 BV.
...
So there like a trilobite fossil is a record from the past of what people thought the IV of BRK.A was at EOY2012. ...

Interesting exercise.

At end 2012 the armchair analysts thought intrinsic value was at 1.566 times known book, and at end 2025 the market price was 1.533 times known book, so that roughly cancels out to make things pretty simple. The multiple at the end was pretty much what the folks at the beginning thought was suitable, so there was no big one-time shift in valuations to take into account.

To me the big take-aways are:
* Yes, as you note, that old estimate was lower than "fair value", defined loosely as the price you'd pay to get what the average US stock has returned in the average year over time. If we assume the stock was trading at fair value at end 2025, the old IV estimate 13 years earlier should have been $235k, not $170k.
* A good part of this particular interval was a surprise to the upside in terms of Berkshire's value performance (thanks, Apple trade). I don't think very many people expected book per share to rise at a bit more than inflation+ 9.0% in the next 13 years, but it did.
* I think it's a fine demonstration of the fact that Berkshire *usually* trades noticeably below true fair value. I often talk about an expected price at some date in the future, but the price I expect is always the typical valuation level, not what the stock is actually worth.

What if growth had been more modest? A plausible conservative forward expectation 13 years ago might have been that Berkshire's shares would rise in value at inflation plus 7 to 8%/year. At 7.5%/year real growth in book per share, starting with that old consensus IV of $175k, 2025 would have ended at a price of $632714, 16% below what was actually seen. That's inflation + 6.5% from the old IV estimate. Assuming the old IV estimate was not crazy, you could view that as the approximate magnitude of the upside surprise in value generation.

I continue to expect value per share to continue to rise at a rate a little higher than that of the average stock in the average historical year. My summary is pretty much the same as it was then: Hope for a real 8%, expect a real 7%.

Jim