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Seeking alpha, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4658383-berkshire...

Is brkb headed to new highs?

As always, the likely answer is "sure". The only question is how SOON the new all time high will be hit.
I'm not so much into charts and short term news cycles like the writer of that article...I'd usually start with valuation metrics.

The cheaper the valuation multiples were when the last all-time-high price was hit, the sooner one might reasonably expect a fresh one.
Or not. That logic makes sense, but historically the spacing of all time highs seems more like a random number generator.

About all one can say is that higher starting valuation levels lead to lower short term returns on average, and vice versa.
The good news is that's true for almost any asset. The bad news is that the phrase "on average" can cover a whole lot of variation.
Conveniently, it works a whole lot better for Berkshire Hathaway shares than it does for (say) the S&P 500.

Jim

A slightly different question, are the days of a B share starting with a "2" over? Meaning is $300 the absolute floor (say with 99% confidence)? I think $299 would be below 1.2x book value which would be very rare...


tecmo
...

To this question, I would defer to Charlie’s comment #93 in….

https://www.kingswell.io/p/the-uncommon-sense-of-c...

A glance at this chart shows a couple -50%ers and several -25%ers so maybe the lower # should be $200 vs the proposed $300 :)

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BRK%2FA&p=W&st=1...

ciao

A slightly different question, are the days of a B share starting with a "2" over? Meaning is $300 the absolute floor (say with 99% confidence)? I think $299 would be below 1.2x book value which would be very rare...

Depending on the valuation metric you use, it's not all THAT unlikely.
On price-to-peak-real-book, it has been that cheap or cheaper over 15% of the time since January 2008.

Jim

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