Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 1
“ What to know:
Harvard disclosed $116 million in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as of June 30.
The holding appears in the university’s quarterly 13-F filing with the SEC.
Move signals growing institutional adoption of spot bitcoin ETFs by traditional investors.”
https://stocks.apple.com/AH2st3M0uRRqNLb2HArImAg
No. of Recommendations: 0
This is gross. On the upside, the availability of this ETF means you can get some January 2027 puts
No. of Recommendations: 1
As I warned after the election of 24, the crypto gang was the big winner, solar, pharma, etc big losers. I wouldn’t short anything in the crypto space, good luck.
No. of Recommendations: 3
"“It’s a pretty wild feeling to see so many people celebrating what this administration is doing, when 12 months ago the same individuals were in literal fear of these agencies,” said one crypto executive who attended the White House event. “We’re winning.”
The Trump administration’s about-face on crypto has led some mainstream financial institutions to embrace what was once a fringe investment. Banks that were all but prohibited by regulators from doing business with digital-asset firms are now being encouraged to dive in. Companies that securities regulators sued are now being courted to implant themselves into the systems Americans use to pay the mortgage or buy groceries.
The last time crypto suffered a major crash—leading to the failure of crypto exchange FTX in 2022—there was virtually no effect on the economy or wider financial system. The next time, that’s unlikely to be the case.
“All the guardrails are being removed at once,” says Lee Reiners, a fellow at the Duke Financial Economics Center. “There will be another downturn, and when it happens, the pain will be acute.”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crypto-wa...
No. of Recommendations: 23
"“It’s a pretty wild feeling to see so many people celebrating what this administration is doing, when 12 months ago the same individuals were in literal fear of these agencies,”
________________________________________________________
The line from Schindler’s List, when Oskar Schindler explains to his wife Emilie why he’s suddenly become successful after so many previous failures:
"I'm successful because there's a war."
It’s a chillingly honest admission. Schindler, a savvy businessman and opportunist at the start of the film, acknowledges that his rise is tied directly to the chaos and exploitation of wartime. The line underscores the moral ambiguity of humanity.
Jeff
No. of Recommendations: 3
I wouldn’t short anything in the crypto space, good luck.
You're probably right, but it didn't stop me from playing around with some numbers. For background, I've believed for a while that Bitcoin bounces around too much to be a good currency substitute. Some of that is backed up by people pouring investment money into Bitcoin, but mostly, it's backed up by looking at the price trendline. It just seems the chances of a up or down movement of 25% or 50% are really high.
Looking at IBIT options expiring December 31, 2025. If you believe Bitcoin could move up or down 50% in that time, you could buy a Call option on IBIT at $85, and a put option at $45. You'd make 5.59x your money on the Call option, or 12x your money on the Put option. Now because you bought them both, you 'd get half that, so 2.8x on your total investment if it gains 50% or more, 6x on your total investment if it loses 50% or more. What if it doesn't move that much from the current price? Well, you lose it all even if it moves 25% in one direction.
So let's look at a 25% movement either way. You could buy a Call at $66, and buy a Put at the same $66. You'd make 2.07X on the Call, or 2.48x on the Put, but because you're buying both investments, your real return is close to break even. Still, it sets you up for large return if Bitcoin does see a 50% positive (or negative) movement. This pair of options would give you 4X on the 50% increase, and 4.99x on the 50% decrease. Again, because you have to buy them both, that would be 2X, or 2.5X on your total investment. What if you don't see a movement this high? If this ETF that aims to track Bitcoin sees a 10% swing, the Call would trade at 0.83X your original investment, and the put would trade at 0.98X your original investment. Maybe that suggests you'd be able to bail on the trade closer to its expiration, maybe not.
No. of Recommendations: 3
You're probably right, but it didn't stop me from playing around with some numbers. ..
Looking at IBIT options expiring December 31, 2025...
I guess that's a "long strangle".
For those who like all those fancy combinations, have a look at a variation of that payoff curve, a "long iron condor". The main difference is that the profit is capped for really big moves, but on the flip side the losses in the middle range are on average much lower. It's what you suggested, but helping to fund the sunk cost in the middle range by writing a VERY out of the money call and a very out of the money put. Those aren't risky because you are protected by the ones with closer strikes, as long as you remember to close everything the same day. The reasoning is that if you think the price move is going to be (say) >=30% but not willing to spend money wagering on a move of 60%+, then you can wager only on a move between those two amounts for less money up front.
Definitely not a recommendation, just continuing your thought experiment.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 1
WEB and CTM have been dead wrong on bitcoin and gold. 1,3,5,10, 20 year period on gold or Bitcoin has crushed S&P 500. Bitcoin since 2009. WHY? Monetary debasement. Period.
No. of Recommendations: 1
August 15 we should find out what Buffett has been buying? I guess Chubb is the favorite. Did he sell more bac? Sell more Apple into this rally? Stay tuned.
No. of Recommendations: 1
