Post #21791 by ptheland on the US Policy board

If someone appears to be repeatedly personal, lean towards patience as they might not mean offense. If you are sure, however, then do not deepen the problem by being negative; instead, simply place them on ignore by clicking the unhappy yellow face to the right of their name.

- Manlobbi

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Even though he's trailing in every national poll and every swing state poll.

Are those differences larger than the margin of error in the polls? If not, the poll is not showing a statistically significant lead for either candidate. Which would mean that commoneone is right. There is still a path for Biden to beat Trump.

As to models, they have the same limitations as polls. Using your example, the models may show that economic fundamentals have some predictive value when used in prior elections. Doesn't mean that is going to work every time. R-squared is never going to be 1.0. But they are a factor to consider.

If good quality polls say Trump has a small lead and good quality models say Biden has a small lead, that would seem to say that this is a very close race. Either candidate could win.

--Peter

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