Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (69) |
Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 21939 
Subject: Re: OT: Hershey
Date: 12/21/23 10:49 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 9
Hershey might work out fine; but the bear case is worth understanding.

I think one bear case might work like this:
The growing and supply chain for raw cacao is problematic. It is simply too labour intensive, the world has only so many poor people willing to do it, and that number seems to be falling. This may cap volumes and drive up prices over time.
That isn't a huge problem for a super premium business, but a volume business it could be an issue.

It's relatively easy to raise prices a bit at the top end of the market, and the cost of cacao is not a large fraction of the selling price in any case. But at the bottom end of the market it's all about volume, and the raw ingredients are a not-inconsequential cost of doing business. So...a bit of squeeze on volumes and/or margins might be foreseeable. I see that as far from fatal, but I could see it as a mild headwind over time. And to be fair, Hershey is extremely aware of the issue and is trying to improve their supply chain both to eliminate risks and to reduce the bad parts.

The good news is that maintaining brand recognition and perception is not nearly as big an issue at the bottom/volume end of the market. It's not the brand perception that is supporting the price, merely supporting which of several equivalently-priced things you reach for.

They're certainly not fading away yet. #1 in US confectionery and #2 in US snacks.
Their #1 customer is McLane Company (sound familiar?), at 28% of sales.

One potential risk factor is the overwhelming US concentration. Mr Buffett would love that, I guess. Only 12.5% of their revenue is ex-US, and to my surprise that number is on a falling trend. It seems to be the "See's brand doesn't travel" problem at a bigger scale. Their brands are things you seem to have to have grown up with to appreciate.

Jim
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (69) |


Announcements
Berkshire Hathaway FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community