No. of Recommendations: 17
To a large extent I was commenting on market tops, the end of a bull which is the start of the bear. They tend to be pretty rounded and gradual overall (though a bit squiggly/jagged short term). Bull market euphoria fades only slowly as many people are habituated to buying on every dip.
Bear market bottoms, as Zeelotes mentions, tend to be pointy: sharp drop, and (when it comes) sharp rebound.
So: beginning gradual, ending sudden.
The most amazing and profitable observation I've seen (not my observation, just repeating it) is that once a pointy bear market bottom has taken place the stuff that zooms the most is generally the very worst crappy stock portfolio imaginable: the things that you would normally want to be short. If (if) you can spot a sharp market bottom, for a little while you want to be long whatever junk you can find: some people look for the low-quality stuff that fell the most on the way down, which works, but I also like looking for those with highest return (biggest bounce so far) since the pointy recent low. i.e., two or three weeks into the rebound, you want to be long the stuff with the highest 2-3 week returns. e.g., if the bear market had a concentration in the financial sector, you want to be long financials after the bottom, but not for too long, their rally will tend to peter out after 2-3 months and you want to rotate into better quality at that point.
Jim
