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Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
No. of Recommendations: 2
And when they get it, what will they do with it? Productive investment? More M&A and stock buybacks?
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 1
Two ways to read this and neither is positive.
1. Powell is knuckling under to presidential pressure.
2. A declining economy is a greater danger to the economy than rising inflation.
No. of Recommendations: 1
The downturn is underway. The rate cut won't stop unemployment from mounting up.
Worse yet the cut in rates that is coming won't stem the deflation.
No. of Recommendations: 1
>>Two ways to read this and neither is positive.<<
Clearly, the result is stimulative monetary policy, and stimulative fiscal policy. Where will the money go? How will it be used? How do we get a piece of the action?
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 2
and stimulative fiscal policy.
The fiscal policies are constraining.
tariffs
low taxes
budget cuts
Particularly, the low corporate taxes are constraining.
The fiscal policies will dominate the economic outcomes.
No. of Recommendations: 2
No. of Recommendations: 0
Here's a breakdown of available data:
July 2025: Nearly $30 billion, according to the Treasury Department. This represents a 242% increase compared to July of the previous year.
June 2025: More than $27 billion, setting a new monthly record at the time, according to Fox Business.
April 2025: Monthly record of $16.3 billion, an increase of $7.6 billion from March. This increase followed the implementation of a 10% tariff across nearly all goods, among other steeper levies.
January 2025: Around $7.9 billion.
Late 2024: Approximately $7 billion per month.
Steve,
The CBO made a forecast while tariff revenues are rising. Nothing dishonest about that. But a ten-year forecast is never what we get in reality.
The forecast was made when the unemployment rate was low.
There may have been other forecasts within that single report that were not stated by the Yahoo News article. There is no reason for the CBO not to have a spread of possible outcomes.
There is a reason for the news media to tweak the readers.
No. of Recommendations: 2
The CBO made a forecast while tariff revenues are rising. Nothing dishonest about that. But a ten-year forecast is never what we get in reality.
Of course. A lot of stuff happens between now and then. The CBO does the best it can, with the data in hand.
Referring back to the link about the $4T/10 years in tariff revenue, Google's AI thing gives me this answer for the cost of the tax cuts in the BBB, in isolation.
The tax cuts in the "Big Beautiful Bill" are projected to reduce federal tax revenues by about $5.0 trillion over a decade (2025-2034) on a conventional basis,
Add a Trillion in money not spent on Medicaid, to the $4T in tariff revenue, and the tax cuts of the BBB are entirely covered, hence redistribution, from people who buy stuff, to people who benefit from the tax cuts.
Mr Market seems to not care one whit about inflation, from monetary stimulus, as he went pretty bonkers today, at the prospect of cheaper money.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 0
One day is not a market.
Your last summary of items has zero econ involved. No principles or ideas of any sort. No reason for growth. No reason we should do any of it.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Your last summary of items has zero econ involved. No principles or ideas of any sort. No reason for growth. No reason we should do any of it.
Well, I'm satisfied that monetary policy will be stimulative. Fiscal policy appeared to also be wildly stimulative, until the tariff revenue estimate hit, which makes fiscal policy look more redistributive. So, the question is who is the money redistributed to, and what will they do with it? I could speculate, but people would start waggling their fingers at me again. :^)
Steve
