Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
 Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd

The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (6) |
Author: tjscott0   😊 😞
Number: of 4460 
Subject: Vanguard Warns Investors
Date: 07/09/26 8:33 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 6
moneywise.com - Vanguard reveals what could be coming for US stocks and its raising alarm bells for retirees

As the company that pioneered the concept of index fund investing and currently has a whopping $11 trillion in assets under management, Vanguard is the ultimate heavyweight in the American stock market. (1)

So when the company puts out a report about the future of the stock market it’s worth closer attention. In July, the company published a 10-year forecast for a wide range of asset classes, ranging from municipal bonds to mortgage-backed securities. (2)

According to Vanguard, the U.S. stock market is expected to deliver an annualized return of between 3.3% to 5.3% over the next 10 years. That is considerably lower than the previous 10 years. Since 2015, the S&P 500 has delivered an annualized return of 15.26%. (3)

The team’s forecast about so-called ‘growth stocks’ is even worse. Vanguard expects an annualized return between 1.9% and 3.9% over the next 10 years. That’s uncomfortably close to the 4% withdrawal rate many retirees depend on to meet living expenses.

If you’re already retired or approaching retirement and your portfolio is overweight U.S. stocks, these forecasts should cause some concern.

Not all asset classes are facing a bleak decade. In fact, some could outperform. Vanguard’s forecast suggests that U.S. treasury bonds could deliver annualized returns ranging from 3.8% to 4.8% over the next 10 years. That’s better returns than growth stocks with far less volatility and risk.

The firm also expects to see stock markets in developed countries outside the U.S. outperforming. Developed market equities excluding American stocks are expected to deliver 5.7% to 7.7% annualized by 2035.
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to tjscott0 here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 4,454 posts about Macroeconomic Trends & Risks. The article-length ones it recommended most:
AI Tarpits · 36 recs · 2026
End of an era - profit slowdown · 36 recs · 2023
Control Panel: Trend changes in 2026 · 34 recs · 2026
From the Oregon Bay Area (a blogger) · 33 recs · 2025
Lerner Symmetry Theorem · 32 recs · 2025
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (6) |


Announcements
Macroeconomic Trends & Risks FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Ticker or Board Name Author

Best Of Macro | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community