The only reason we're getting One Big Beautiful Bill - and the reason why the GOP went this way - was to put the democrats in the position they've put the Republicans in many times: either vote for cloture and pass a budget framework or shut the government down. So Schumer took the obvious way forward and voted for cloture.

That's completely wrong. This is a reconciliation bill. And Thune's bill would have been as well. They're not subject to the filibuster. Cloture has nothing to do with it. There has not been, and will not be, a cloture vote on the OBBB.

A party can pass up to two reconciliation bills per Congress (one for each year). The choice the GOP had was either to draft two separate reconciliation bills (neither of which was subject to the filibuster) or a single larger bill that had everything in one package. They chose the latter. The consequence of that is that increased funding will not start flowing to ICE until after July 4th at the earliest, and probably later. Which means most of 2025 will pass without increased funding, and therefore without much of an increase in deportation rates.