Avoid thoughtless posting - imagine a post that you would find inspiring from others, then aim for that standard yourself. In this way the board will blossom.
- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks A / Apple (AAPL)
No. of Recommendations: 4
Oh surely not.
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/23/nx-s1-5797876/polym...
A hair dryer? A lighter? A lucky coincidence?
Authorities in France are investigating possible tampering with a weather monitoring device at Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris after an unusual temperature spike was recorded around the same time a Polymarket trader cashed in.
An anonymous trader with the username "xX25Xx" has drawn scrutiny from analysts and fellow traders on Polymarket, where people can bet on things like a city's top temperature and other real-world events.
The trader bet $119 that the weather in Paris on April 15 would jump past the equivalent of 64 degrees Fahrenheit, and weather enthusiasts online noticed a sudden spike in temperature on that day. Thanks to the sudden rise in temperature, the trader netted $21,398 in profit.
When local meteorologists ruled out that the temperature anomaly had happened naturally, the Polymarket trader deleted their account.
No. of Recommendations: 6
Oh surely not.Like the guy who was involved in the Maduro snatch operation, betting on Maduro being snatched?
U.S. soldier involved in Maduro raid charged with betting on the operation
The special forces soldier allegedly made more than $400,000 on Polymarket as a result of the bets, prosecutors say.https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/sol...Steve
No. of Recommendations: 3
John Oliver just covered this last week. It's a sham, basically. Most people lose money. The Maduro thing appears to be equivalent to insider trading.
I know it's bogus because they are currently giving a 3% chance of Jesus returning by 2027. But there is a zero percent chance of that.
No. of Recommendations: 2
I know it's bogus because they are currently giving a 3% chance of Jesus returning by 2027. But there is a zero percent chance of that.In a sad coincidence, the latest poll has democrat's approval of Congress at 3%
Republicans have driven most of the recent decline, with a sharp drop in their latest approval rating of Congress after surging to 63% in March 2025. By contrast, Democrats have consistently rated the current Congress poorly, and independents’ views have been relatively stable at a low level. Currently, 11% of independents and 3% of Democrats — essentially the same as the 2% record low for the group in August — approve of the job Congress is doing. https://news.gallup.com/poll/708722/disapproval-co...
No. of Recommendations: 6
I know it's bogus because they are currently giving a 3% chance of Jesus returning by 2027. But there is a zero percent chance of that.
Lots of things to criticize about these 'prediction markets,' but this seems pretty kosher to me. These "chances" aren't set by the betting site, but just reflect what people are willing to bet on. There's a non-zero number of people who believe in the near-term second coming of Jesus, and are willing to put a little money on it. Even though there's a zero percent chance of that happening, transaction costs make it impossible for people in early 2026 to arbitrage the odds on a late 2027 payout down to zero (you can get better interest rates on an FDIC-insured savings account).
No. of Recommendations: 4
These "chances" aren't set by the betting site, but just reflect what people are willing to bet on.
That's true. But sometimes willingness to bet doesn't equate to data about validity or predictions. Which is why "prediction market" is bogus.
No. of Recommendations: 2
That's true. But sometimes willingness to bet doesn't equate to data about validity or predictions. Which is why "prediction market" is bogus.
I mean, no more than "stock market" is bogus. Or a betting line, which are usually exceptionally accurate predictions about future game outcomes and generally outperforming most other kinds of statistical models or other predictive techniques. No one is claiming that these things are entirely based on data about validity or predictions. They just distill the views of the masses. That just brings the much softer claim that the outcome of that distillation can be more accurate than other types of predictions.
No. of Recommendations: 2
I mean, no more than "stock market" is bogus.
Disagree. There is data behind a stock market. 10Ks and 10Q. Press releases, annual reports, and more. It's not an exact prediction, but there is at least some data behind it to make some educated guesses what is going to happen.
Same with straight gambling. Poker there are odds for various hands. Basketball there are stats for players and teams. Etc. Odds still favor the house, but that doesn't negate the data out there.
The prediction markets are just measures of people's willingness to bet on something. There's no underlying data. So, to pick the low hanging fruit, there is NO data whatsoever that Jesus was even divine, much less the anticipated "savior" (he didn't fulfill the Judaic requirements, which is why there are still religious Jews today), or that the Abrahamic story is anything more than fantasy. So, based on data, the odds of Jesus returning this year is ZERO. But the "market" says 3%.
They just distill the views of the masses.
Yes. And, in the case of sports there is data that many of the masses use. And in the case of elections, it is the masses that are voting. But Jesus returning, or how many times the Felon will say "bigly" in a SOTU address, has no data. And, as John Oliver revealed, the vast majority of people participating in those "markets" lose money. The ones who win seem to be using insider information (which in other contexts is illegal). It's just a betting ring that claims it isn't a betting ring (you should have seen the founder of one of the "markets" trying to spin that one under a reporter's persistent questioning).
No. of Recommendations: 5
Disagree. There is data behind a stock market.
There’s even more data available to the insider who bets on whether or not a particular event will occur- and “when”.
That’s what makes them crooked. One guy (or a gaggle of them) know exactly what will happen and when.
Seems to me- Polymarket is especially incentivized to root out insider betting, because insider betting renders their entire business model a scam that can be used by thieves to unerringly pick the pockets of those stupid enough to bet against them.
No. of Recommendations: 2
The prediction markets are just measures of people's willingness to bet on something. There's no underlying data.
For some bets, sure. Same for betting on the coin toss on the Super Bowl. Some of those prop bets are there purely for folks to take a flyer on.
But the same general principle that makes most sports betting super accurate, and makes up the efficient market hypothesis, also underlies a lot of the more substantive bets. If you give the public the opportunity to make money by having a better understanding of the likelihood of the future events by betting on/investing in them, then the price of those bets/investments will incorporate the information the public has in a meaningful way. It will also incentivize lots of people to learn relevant information about the events.
That's why betting lines for major sporting events are such amazing predictors of game outcomes, often far better than efforts to statistically model them. NFL games land pretty much at a near-exact 50/50 against the closing spreads, for example - showing that those betting lines are doing a very good job of accurately reflecting real world information.
I think you're criticizing a claim that even the prediction markets aren't making. If there's a prop on a truly random event (like the coin toss), no one's suggesting that the prediction market on that event is based on underlying data. But for the types of markets where there is underlying data, like "conventional" sports bets or elections predictions or what have you, then the market price can convey meaningful information that is aggregated from bettors about the real world.
No. of Recommendations: 8
Polymarket...
It's a sham, basically. Most people lose money.Not surprising to learn in one of the stories covering the incident that Don Trump Jr is a Polymarket investor and on its advisory board.
Prediction markets platform Polymarket said on Tuesday it has secured an investment from venture capital firm 1789 Capital and that Donald Trump Jr, son of the U.S. president, has joined its advisory board.
Polymarket did not disclose the terms of the investment by 1789 Capital, but a source familiar with the matter told Reuters it was in the double-digit millions of dollars...and the grift goes on.
https://cryptonews.com/news/trump-jr-joins-polymar...https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/polymarket-secures...
No. of Recommendations: 4
No. of Recommendations: 14
Not surprising to learn in one of the stories covering the incident that Don Trump Jr is a Polymarket investor and on its advisory board.
During Trump's first term, his spawn were front and center in the news. Now they are just quietly and greedily enjoying the fantastic grifting that Daddy has made possible.
The entire family is a bunch of corrupt crooks.
No. of Recommendations: 2
What strategies could one employ on polymarket wrt Ghislaine Maxwell being pardoned by Felontrump?
No. of Recommendations: 2
No. of Recommendations: 2
You can straight up just wager
But albaby, that’s not a betting site. If you’re placing a wager, you’re betting!
😁🤔🤣
—Peter
No. of Recommendations: 1
But albaby, that’s not a betting site. If you’re placing a wager, you’re betting!
Of course it's a betting site! Polymarket and Kalshi are mostly sports wagers.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Of course it's a betting site!
According to Polymarket, they're a Prediction market, not gambling. It's only gambling in the sense that trading commodity futures is gambling. At least that's my understanding of Polymarket's position.
Of course, they've been banned in the US, so our poster asking how to profit on Ploymarket (I was going to correct that typo, but I think I'll leave it as a Freudian slip!!) from some situation needs to be outside of the US (and a couple of other countries that have banned Polymarket.
--Peter
PS - Or know how to use a VPN to appear to be outside of the US.
No. of Recommendations: 5
According to Polymarket, they're a Prediction market, not gambling. It's only gambling in the sense that trading commodity futures is gambling. At least that's my understanding of Polymarket's position.
They can call it what they want, but it's still a betting site - because most of their volume is on sports, and colloquially paying money that will yield a set return on the outcome of a sporting event but be kept by the counterparty if that sporting event outcome does not occur is traditionally called a "bet," rather than a futures contract or "swap" or "contingent investment" or any other phrase that is used to describe a similarly structured contract in other contexts.
Where I was pushing back upthread was the idea that this is "bogus" in some way. Sportsbooks are clearly betting sites, and they are also extremely efficient at distilling information into a prediction on sporting event outcomes. A large liquid sportsbook proposition - like the betting on the winner of an NFL game - is really close to the weak EMH in action, and has an outstanding historic record of being correct (meaning the outcomes against the closing spread are almost exactly 50/50 over time).
"Prediction markets" don't always have that feature. They're not always deep or liquid, sometimes they're propositions on things that literally can't be predicted (which sportsbooks have, too, like the Coin Toss prop bets for the Super Bowl), etc. But for heavily wagered propositions, the idea is that they will function similar to betting lines, and provide a better (though never perfectly accurate) sense of what might happen in a given event.
