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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: lizgdal   😊 😞
Number: of 3959 
Subject: Alpha of a few Dividend ETFs
Date: 03/28/2023 12:26 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 9
About 2 years ago, DopplerValue listed 9 ETFs that "use the Buffett approach". Five of these are Dividend focused, and three are "Cash Cow" focused. What is "the Buffett approach"? http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...

I plugged these 9 ETFs into Portfolio Visualizer and found an average Annual Alpha of 3.4% from June 2019 to December 2022 (time period was constrained by BUL). All 9 had positive Alpha. (Could just be luck, as none of the Alphas were statistically significant.)

Ticker  Rm-Rf   SMB   HML    MOM   Alpha  AnnualAlpha   R2                   Name
COWZ 0.95 0.01 0.47 -0.10 0.59% 7.1% 92% Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF
SCHD 0.83 -0.18 0.31 -0.06 0.46% 5.5% 93% Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF
MOAT 0.87 -0.19 0.07 -0.31 0.32% 3.9% 96% VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF
DGRW 0.85 -0.29 0.13 -0.02 0.29% 3.5% 94% WisdomTree US Quality Dividend Gr ETF
CALF 1.08 0.77 0.48 0.00 0.26% 3.1% 92% Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF
VDIGX 0.79 -0.39 0.09 -0.01 0.23% 2.8% 89% Vanguard Dividend Growth Inv
PRDGX 0.86 -0.27 0.06 -0.02 0.16% 1.9% 96% T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth
BUL 1.12 0.15 0.08 0.11 0.11% 1.4% 94% Pacer US Cash Cows Growth ETF
SDY 0.79 -0.10 0.33 -0.12 0.11% 1.3% 94% SPDR S&P Dividend ETF
BRK.B 0.92 -0.62 0.31 0.00 0.17% 2.0% 75% Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
RSP 0.97 -0.01 0.25 -0.11 0.09% 1.0% 98% Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
SPY 0.98 -0.19 0.02 -0.02 0.07% 0.8% 100% SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
VTI 0.99 -0.04 0.02 -0.01 0.00% 0.0% 100% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF


For comparison, Portfolio Visualizer Four-Factor Model has results for 427 US Equity ETFs from Jan 2020 to Dec 2022: Annual Alpha ranges from 9% to -25% with a -0.5% median. 180 have Alpha>0.

SCHD Annual Alpha from Nov 2011 to Dec 2022 was 2.0%. Alpha was about 0% before 2021, and about 4% after 2021 (heteroscedasticity confirmed).

COWZ Annual Alpha from Jan 2017 to Dec 2022 was 4.7%. Alpha has been increasing since 2021.

A longer backtest of these 2 ETFs might be interesting. Is Alpha or Excess Return better for evaluating performance? I prefer Excess Return, but Alpha has its fans.

"Subtraction is essentially the same as regression except that β is always equal to one. If you actually look at the data, β often does not come close to one."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4316293-why-alpha...
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