No. of Recommendations: 6
So basically the company is trading around $23.5 Billion USD market cap this morning, around 1.1x book value, and guided to a likely base-case earnings floor of around $4 Billion in annual operating income for each of the next several years. $2 Billion in interest and dividend income, $1.2 Billion normalized underwriting profit, and around $750 million in profit from associates (equity accounted type stuff). No guarantees, of course - there could be enormous claims events and investment losses - but we are not counting the possibility of investment gains here either.
Consolidated combined ratios are good. Individual subsidiary combined ratios are all good. They are showing underwriting discipline by declining unprofitable business (and returning $340m in unearned premium to a client for terminating a residential property quota share at Odyssey Re that didn't look like a good risk anymore).
Reserving has been conservative / redundant, with consistent reserve releases and positive development over time.
International insurance growth has been phenomenal, profitable, and will continue to grow strongly in 2024 because of the addition of $2.4 Billion in premiums at newly acquired/consolidated Gulf Insurance - GIC. They also take over Gulf Insurance's investment portfolio to manage while getting a very favorable "owner financing" / pay over time using the acquired company's own earnings to make the payments - type of deal. It pays to be a good partner.
We have determined that Carson Block is not an expert in IFRS accounting (or Indian GAAP accounting).
Carson Block does not think Exco's carrying value is appropriate at 3.5x earnings, or a 30% earnings yield or whatever.
Carson Block thinks it was a crime to sell 10% of a single subsidiary (to a friendly partner, with the option to repurchase it for a known price) to raise $900 million cash in order to tender for 7% of the shares of the entire holding company for cancellation (at less than half of today's market price).
