Post #106 by ultimatespinach on the Alphabet board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks G / Alphabet (GOOG)

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Nice quarter, pretty much inline with my forecasts (guesses)

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/alphabet-set-to-re...


				
						my guess
EPS		$1.89		+6.45%		1.90
Revenue		84.74B		+13.59%		82B
Stock		$183		+50%		$154-$169


Valuation (TTM)
	Revenue	: $328B
	EPS	: $6.53 / share
	Stock	: $183

Forecast (Guesses) (next 4 quarters)
	Revenue	: $360B
	EPS	: $8.80 / share
	Stock	: $175 - $218

Valuation is elevated relative to recent past, but not all that out of line.

tecmo
...

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Valuation (TTM)
Revenue : $328B
EPS : $6.53 / share
Stock : $183

Your TTM EPS is consistently lower than mine, so I went back and checked the 10Q/Ks:

Period      Diluted EPS
Q2 2024          $1.89
Q1 2024          $1.89
Q4 2023          $1.64
Q3 2023          $1.55

TTM              $6.97

TTM P/E at Friday's closing price of $167: 23.96

Alphabet has no preferred shares outstanding, according to the Q2 balance sheet, and our revenue numbers match, so I'm not sure what might account for the difference. If I've got something wrong, please feel free to correct.

According to Ycharts, Alphabet’s TTM P/E range over the past five years has been 16.58-38.01, with an average of 26.67 and a median of 26.75, which would make today’s price a bit cheaper than usual over that period, which includes the pandemic-related boom of 2020-21 and bust of 2022.

https://ycharts.com/companies/GOOG/pe_ratio

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It was a typo - my spreadsheet aligns with your numbers
(I have 1.65 for Q4-2023 - but will update it)

I am using a baseline of around 25x for my EPS multiple and 6.2x for my P/S multiple

tecmo
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