This is a paper published Sept. 2022. The conclusion in part reads,

"Technical trading rules-based strategies in equity markets substantially reduce left tail risk
exposure. Following a simple moving average strategy, an investor would be able to avoid a
large percentage of negative shocks. Left tail exposure is reduced even further during NBER
recessions, which we attribute to feedback effects between financial markets and the real
economy. Theory suggests that risk reduction should be accompanied by a performance
penalty. Our findings, however, are not consistent with this notion ' TTR performance
measures are almost always better than those corresponding to a buy-and-hold strategy."

I guess the problem is to figure out when a recession is coming. If we could figure that out, maybe we should be on the Federal Reserve Board or not. Here is the link. This is my first post here so sorry if I screwed-up.

SSRN: Research paper:(wrds):research:paper:series_abstractlink

I don't know how to post a live link, so you will have to copy and paste.

Sandywater