Post New

Joe now has the option, of doing the right thing. What a country.

Seriously. Who in Biden’s camp thought that was a good idea?

There won’t be any more debates. At least not between these two candidates.

Also right now Gavin Newsom is calling everyone he knows begging to be The Guy.

So Dope, you claimed Biden was going to be hopped up on speed? Didn't see any of that. Did hear a lot of lies from Trump. Not sure how to address the need to fact check all Trump's lies.

Also right now Gavin Newsom is calling everyone he knows begging to be The Guy.

So now you both have gone from Biden will be hopped up on speed and the whole debate will be unfair to Trump - to - you both think Biden should drop out?

LOL. Biden lied his rear end off.

The Border Patrol Union says “hi”.

libruls lie to themselves before lying to everyone else.

Seriously. Who in Biden’s camp thought that was a good idea?

I actually felt sorry for grandpa Joe.
Grandpa Joe looked horrible, he sounded even worse.

You are hopelessly and thoroughly deluding yourself if you think that the people who run the democrat party aren’t talking about Joe tapping out.

“Its half of inch of water and you think you’re gonna drown”

Biden certainly upheld the tradition of incumbent’s first debates.

The most positive thing I can say is that Biden got stronger and stronger over the 90 minutes.

But Trump didn’t do himself any favors. He started out semi-coherently and evolved into a word salad of continuous lies. He reminded Americans why they hate his lying, evading answers, MUS, bragging, promising everything, blaming, and whining. Glad to hear he didn’t have sex with a sex worker.

As Gavin Newsom said, stop worrying and start working. Joe has always had our back, now we need to have his.

You are hopelessly and thoroughly deluding yourself ……

A Trump supporter accusing someone else of deluding themselves?

Talk about a lack of self-awareness.

Trump supporter accusing someone else o

And this is all you have.
Pity.

You are hopelessly and thoroughly deluding yourself if you think that the people who run the democrat party aren’t talking about Joe tapping out.

I think you don't understand the political party process even though Albaby gave us all insight into the process as he understands it. There are 4 months left to the election, neither party is capable of shifting gears and presenting a new candidate at his point. It would be campaign suicide to do it this late. The Democrats are not talking amongst themselves about getting a new candidate. Candidates for 2028? Maybe, but they are gearing up now. Training has already been done for phone banks. It's time to get the vote out, neighborhood canvassing, the time for picking candidates has long passed, and you were made aware.

" As Gavin Newsom said, stop worrying and start working. Joe has always had our back, now we need to have his."

Oh my, it doesn't end.

I HAD A DREAM, Jamie Dimon watched that and concluded, he HAS TO offer to replace Joe if asked. HOPE to save our children's future !

Frank Luntz,

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/06/28/bidens-debat...

The most positive thing I can say is that Biden got stronger and stronger over the 90 minutes

I suggest you read this morning’s headlines.
The democrats are in panic mode.

EOM

I watched the debate, pretty disheartening. Biden had a very poor performance, and Trump is simply a pathological liar. I will certainly still be voting against Trump, but in America image is everything. I'll be checking with friends from around the State to hear what they are thinking.

In the stream of lies coming out of Trumps mouth, he said something about Nancy Pelosi, in a letter to her daughter, saying that she refused Trumps offer to send in National Guard on Jan 6th.

Why would Pelosi have been in charge of whether the NG was sent in ? As far as I know she had no position of authority on troop deployment whatsoever. This link verifies that.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/fact-check-trumps-cla...

Anybody have a guess as to what the eff Trump was talking about ?

I think you don't understand the political party process even though Albaby gave us all insight into the process as he understands it. There are 4 months left to the election, neither party is capable of shifting gears and presenting a new candidate at his point. It would be campaign suicide to do it this late. The Democrats are not talking amongst themselves about getting a new candidate.

I wouldn’t be so sure. Today’s headlines in the Wall Street Journal:

Democrats Privately Discuss Replacing Biden on Presidential Ticket

Separate story

Biden’s Disastrous Night Stands to Alter Course of the Election

Separate story

Biden Crashes in First Clash With Trump—and Other Takeaways From the Debate

Now you may say, oh, well that’s the Journal. OK, here’s the New York Times:

A Fumbling Performance, and a Panicking Party
President Biden’s shaky, halting debate performance has Democrats talking about replacing him on the ticket.

Another headline:

Biden Struggles as Trump Blusters

Another story

‘It’s Frightening’: Democratic Voters Worried by Biden’s Struggles in Debate

How about the Washington Post?

Biden stumbles in fiery debate as Trump spreads falsehoods

Need another?

Democrats panic over Biden’s debate performance, doubt his future

Here’s the start of the NPR coverage:

1. First and foremost, let’s talk about the elephant in the room – Democrats have to be wondering if they’d be better off with someone else as their nominee.

I don’t think you understand how consequential this debate was. It confirmed what Republicans have been saying for months, it showed that Trump can lie at will and get away with it. I expect a 5 point swing, perhaps more, and will be pretty much unrecoverable from this point going forward. Remember the “Richard Nixon won the debate on radio, but lost on TV because of his stubble and grumpy face”? This one Biden lost on both radio AND TV.

I don’t know that a brokered convention is the answer, but this race is lost.

Not sure how many swing voters read The Economist, but here's their take:

Joe Biden’s horrific debate performance casts his entire candidacy into doubt
The president had one job and he utterly failed at it

and, also from across the pond, here's the Guardian:

‘Defcon 1 moment’: Biden’s debate performance sends Democrats into panic

--sutton

I don’t know that a brokered convention is the answer, but this race is lost.

If so, a sad day for our Republic.

DJT up 3.90, on 4 million shares. WHO are the buyers WHAT do they expect in return ? Comprende ?

I don’t know that a brokered convention is the answer, but this race is lost.
***

Good ol' checkers players ever since the TMF days.


The 2028 election won't make you a governable country.

Current cultural trends and norms - will always drain resources.

Promoting tribes, castes, sects, and watering down a common culture and true knowledge of American civics and history will always make it easier for the extremes to cater to their tribes to get to that 50.1% win.


Someone on TMF was personally attacked when he used to warn that all of the above will make you ungovernable. Will make your melting pot into a mosaic. Will turn you into a polyglot. Will turn you into not only a tribal nation - but that it will make you a first world country - with visible 3rd world traits.


Well, here you are now.


What sucks for me is that I actually LIKE Biden and always have. I LIKE some of the policies too. Personally - my sole worry is the Affordable Care Act now.

Beyond that, I hope the Europeans pay a price one day.

Arrogant 401K Liberals - -- it's time to step up the punishment.

Remember, one day you'll say "the 2020s were the good ol' days"

O say, can you see?

(Hint, you still have one or two cycles to get this on the right track.....but Sunnis and Shias like you people aren't capable of doing such)

I don’t think you understand how consequential this debate was.

Normally, I’d be in full panic mode along with what appears to be the entire Democratic Party. But for some reason, I’m more sanguine this morning.

Delusional? Always a chance according to my wife and children.

Biden’s performance was abysmal. Then again, so was Trump’s. Biden’s performance displayed everything we feared about him. Then again, so did Trump’s.

So, while the Republicans are busy measuring curtains and the Democrats are busy wringing their hands, I’m willing to wait and see how the dust settles.

This is not a normal election with normal candidates.

Nothing about this election is normal.

Anybody have a guess as to what the eff Trump was talking about ?

Yes we do. Thoroughly covered in the right wing media. Trump was telling the truth.

Oh, forgot something.

I.
Told.
You.
So.

Trump was telling the truth.

Truth?

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/fac...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28...

What we watched last night was not a debate. It was like a WWE fake wrestling show on one side of the ring and a person who did not know how to act in a WWE fake wrestling program.

What we saw was Trump behaving like a WWE fake-wresting thug spewing a non-stop stream of lies who was so far from appearing Presidential that anybody who feels otherwise desperately needs to reexamine their values as an American. His performance was fit for a WWE fake wrestling.

What we saw was Biden, flat-footed, blown away by Trump's performance that happened during what was supposed to be a 'presidential' debate. There was nothing 'presidential' about the flood of lies and misinformation to which he was subjected. Were it not being televised to a global audience, had it been a routine meeting in an office, he would have been correct to call security and leave.

I would bet dollars to donuts that, in preparation for that disastrous event Biden was never subjected to an actor 'flooding the zone with shit' as Trump did last night.

Biden never anticipated stepping into the ring with a WWE performer. Unlike the recent rallies where Trump leads his audience in chanting 'bullshit,' President Biden said 'malarkey.' Big fucking deal. Biden didn't descend to the base vocabulary 'christians' were chanting in church at a political service last week.

Malarkey. Deal with it.

Trump is not now, nor has he ever been, 'presidential.' It would be hard to find a less presidential candidate than Trump.

I'll vote for a civilized old man like Biden over a sociopathic, pathological bullshit spewing liar like Trump.

Biden’s performance was abysmal. Then again, so was Trump’s. Biden’s performance displayed everything we feared about him. Then again, so did Trump’s.

The difference is Republicans don’t care, heck they celebrate in his lies. (See Dope comment just upthread.) Democrats do care, which is why you find this:

Joe Biden Is a Good Man and a Good President. He Must Bow Out of the Race.

I watched the Biden-Trump debate alone in a Lisbon hotel room, and it made me weep. I cannot remember a more heartbreaking moment in American presidential campaign politics in my lifetime, precisely because of what it revealed: Joe Biden, a good man and a good president, has no business running for re-election. And Donald Trump, a malicious man and a petty president, has learned nothing and forgotten nothing. He is the same fire hose of lies he always was, obsessed with his grievances — nowhere close to what it will take for America to lead in the 21st century.

The Biden family and political team must gather quickly and have the hardest of conversations with the president, a conversation of love and clarity and resolve. To give America the greatest shot possible of deterring the Trump threat in November, the president has to come forward and declare that he will not be running for re-election and is releasing all of his delegates for the Democratic National Convention.

The Republican Party, if its leaders had an ounce of integrity, would demand the same, but it won’t, because they don’t. That makes it all the more important that Democrats put the country’s interests first and announce that a public process will begin for different Democratic candidates to compete for the nomination — town halls, debates, meetings with donors, you name it. Yes, it could be chaotic and messy when the Democratic convention starts on Aug. 19 in Chicago, but I think the Trump threat is sufficiently grave that delegates could quickly rally around and nominate a consensus candidate.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-bid...

Thoroughly covered in the right wing media. Trump was telling the truth.

Good Germans believed Hitler in the 1930s too.

Anybody have a guess as to what the eff Trump was talking about ?

Does anyone ever have an idea of what the eff Trump is talking about?

I would bet dollars to donuts that, in preparation for that disastrous event Biden was never subjected to an actor 'flooding the zone with shit' as Trump did last night.

Then they failed in his prep. We all new Trump would do exactly that.

I'll vote for a civilized old man like Biden over a sociopathic, pathological bullshit spewing liar like Trump.

Me too...I just wish we had an alternative.

No. You clowns don’t get to do anything with my name other than apologize.

All the righties were correct. All of you people were blissfully ignorant or actively participating in the lie - doesn’t matter to me which, you were to a man and a woman or whatever you call yourselves - wrong.

100% wrong.

We told you so.

I don’t think you understand how consequential this debate was

I do now Goofy. At 2 am these responses weren't out, and since Biden started slow and finished well in my view I didn't see any need. But still:

"WAPO: Could Biden be replaced as the 2024 Democratic nominee?

Could Biden be replaced as the 2024 Democratic nominee?

The simple answer is no — but to do so, it’s likely that he would first have to agree to step aside. There was no indication on Friday that he was planning to do so, though some Democratic strategists and officeholders have quietly said it’s a conversation the party will have to have."

So I've had time to reassess how people see it differently than I do. I was just listening and not watching after 30 minutes. So you've had the benefit of waking up and absorbing info I didn't have at 2am. And thanks for being a jerk about it and piling on. I'll remember.

Goofy, Within a few minutes it was obvious what Trump was doing. Biden should have been prepped not to attempt to present facts, but to explain what Trump was doing, and why that made a rational response impossible in a 2 minute window of opportunity. Obviously, a lot of people were disappointed with Biden's attempt to maintain some semblance of decorum and said/wrote some emotional kneejerk op-eds. Some Monday morning quarterbacking is called for.

Jay Kuo:
If you’re like me, you didn’t sleep well last night. Many had approached last night’s debate with anxiety, but if anything I was guilty of some overconfidence that Joe Biden would easily hold his own against Donald Trump. After all, we had just heard Biden in interviews on ABC and Howard Stern. He had met with G7 leaders who praised his leadership and experience. This was a debate on policy, where he normally shines.

I was live blogging the debate over at The Big Picture, and I have to admit, the first 20 minutes sent my blood pressure up sharply. Biden’s voice was noticeably weak and hoarse, and his facial expressions made him look tired or confused rather than resolute and confident. It was hard to pick out his words. I wish his campaign had let the world know that he had a cold; that would have set expectations more appropriately. I also wish that they had prepped him on how to take on a gish-galloping conman by answering with sentiment rather than just facts and policy.

Biden’s performance unfortunately added to a familiar concern about him: that he is simply too old to do the job another four years. As former Sen. Claire McCaskill said candidly in a post-debate interview with Rachel Maddow,

Well first, the easy part. Donald Trump is a liar, a flawed character, mean, a jerk, very unlikeable, and that was obvious tonight.

Now, the hard and heartbreaking part. I’ve been a surrogate for some presidential candidates in my time. I know what the job is after the debate of a surrogate. I’ve never wanted to be a surrogate more than I do right now. Because when you’re a surrogate, you have to focus on the positives. But I’ve said very clearly and very plainly, and my job now was to be really honest. Joe Biden had one job to do tonight. And he didn’t do it. He had one thing he had to accomplish, and that was reassure America that he was up to the job at his age. And he failed at that tonight.”

In the wake of his under performance, there have been widespread calls in editorial pages for Biden to step aside, including from Thomas Friedman at the New York Times, who penned a heartfelt OpEd honoring his long time friend yet urging him to decline the nomination.

I get where Friedman was coming from. I admit, I was feeling the panic, too, as text messages came in from friends and colleagues all over the country. And frankly, I let the moment get the better of me. I wrote and posted on social media that I love and respect Joe, but didn’t believe he was the man to lead us to November.

In retrospect, I think that was, to borrow a recent phrase from the Supreme Court, “improvidently” shared. For that, I apologize. Upon calmer reflection and some admittedly fitful sleep, there were three main reasons I took it down and have changed my mind on this. I hope they offer you some helpful perspective.

First, even as I could feel my own anxiety and stress hitting peak levels after the debate was over, I remember asking myself, “Where the hell was the Joe Biden I know?” Against my better judgment, I doomscrolled through my feed and landed upon the address Biden gave to followers at the after party in Atlanta. There, Biden sounded confident, jovial and presidential. “Why couldn’t this Joe Biden have shown up on stage?” I lamented. You can see the clip for yourself:.....
But my own question reminded me that anyone can have a bad night, and that 90 minutes can sometimes feel like an eternity. But it’s really just one awful bump on a very long road.

The Joe Biden I know is the guy in the above clip. He’s the one who negotiated hard for bipartisan bills on infrastructure, chips, climate change and prescription drugs. He’s the one who defied the haters and gave a tremendous State of the Union speech.

Second, I have always considered myself a pragmatic progressive. When I asked myself honestly whether it is at all likely that Biden would step aside, the answer I came back with is “no.” And that meant my post was academic, not practical. Seasoned political advisors know that one bad debate performance, which happened to nearly every incumbent from Reagan to Obama, does not spell certain electoral doom. Granted, Biden’s debate performance was worse than those, but there is still a long time between now and November. And both Reagan and Obama became two term presidents after they faltered badly in their first debate.

That means any call for a change at the top is both impractical and unhelpful. Those two things don’t align with my personal values in politics, and in this post-debate hangover I can see that more clearly.

Finally, I asked myself, “What will people remember from last night?” The answer is not surprising: that Biden was halting and seemed old, and that Trump the felon lied and lied and lied. In other words, they will come away with the exact same impressions they already have of the candidates. Our job is to continue to make the case that soft-spoken and old is far better than fascist and criminal. And that remains a battle we can win.

When you read the actual transcripts of the debate, Biden comes off sounding fine, while Trump sounds like the unhinged one who uttered some truly remarkable things. For example, he claimed that illegal immigrants are coming over and taking “Black jobs,” which has spawned a whole new category of memes about what a “Black job” is in Trump’s racist and deranged head. For someone who claims he will win a lot of the Black vote, it was a revealing and damaging moment.

Trump also lied over 30 times in the course of 90 minutes according to CNN’s fact-checker Daniel Dale. It’s worth watching him recite them all:...........

CNN’s moderators maddeningly did not fact check Trump in real time, per their announced rule, even when the question of what Trump’s former chief of staff John Kelly had confirmed to moderator Jake Tapper came up multiple times. As The Hill had reported,

Former White House chief of staff John Kelly confirmed several remarks his former boss, former President Trump, reportedly made during his time in the administration, including one where Trump referred to dead U.S. service members as “suckers.”

In a statement to CNN, Kelly, the longest serving chief of staff in the Trump administration, confirmed to network anchor Jake Tapper a number of details published in a 2020 article by The Atlantic, including remarks made by Trump during an official visit to France in 2018.

The fact-checking fell instead to Biden to attempt to do, but that would have eaten up all of his time and turned the debate even more into a chaotic he said / he said. Imagine if Dale had been allowed to run chyrons against false claims by Trump in the moment he uttered them. Much of my frustration, I realized, was over how the lies were allowed to sit there unchallenged. I was mad at the world, and specifically at the network and its useless moderators.

Later today, I have the surreal honor of meeting President Biden in person for the first time here in New York City after having raised $178,000 so far for his reelection, largely from my amazing readership. The Bidens are coming here to celebrate Pride weekend, a reminder that his administration has done more for the LGBTQ+ community than any other in history and fully has our backs.

I should have had Joe’s. He deserved better from me.

But I am going to be kind to myself a bit here, too, and I want to extend this grace to anyone else who may have spent the last 12 hours casting about desperately for another solution. These are very stressful times, and it’s understandable that the idea of a second Trump term causes people, including me, to lose it a bit. There will be low points, and this was one of them for both the Biden Campaign and its supporters. But as the Buddhists say, wisdom is like rain: It gathers in low places.

Coming back around, committing to repair, and getting back to work are the best therapeutics I know. I’m already rolling up my sleeves.

Read it on substack with the mentioned video clips

https://substack.com/home/post/p-146076012

Yes, it could be chaotic and messy when the Democratic convention starts on Aug. 19 in Chicago, but I think the Trump threat is sufficiently grave that delegates could quickly rally around and nominate a consensus candidate.

I think Friedman is being surpassingly naive with that statement....

When you read the actual transcripts of the debate, Biden comes off sounding fine

Seriously? The country will be lucky of 100 people “read the transcript.” People WATCHED, and what they saw was a feeble man steamrolled by the biggest con man in the past century, and so what?

This is UNRECOVERABLE. The next two months are July and August, when nothing of import happens. Nobody pays attention to politics over the summer (and no corporations launch new products either, for largely the same reason.) Then you have September and October in which to change the minds of those for whom this memory has been sitting for the prior two months. That.will.not.happen. People saw what they saw, and it will be amplified, not muted, in the days and weeks ahead in social media, in mainstream media, and especially in Right-wing media.

The sound you hear today is wallets snapping shut of Democratic donors, and of those snapping open by Republican billionaires. This performance, taken to its conclusion in November, offers a realistic chance for a wipeout: a Trump Presidency, along with a Republican House Majority and Senate Majority. Add in a corrupt and sycophantic USSC and you have set the Republic back 100 years, if it survives at all.

Nixon had the good sense to get out of the way, but only after his closest allies told him there was no path to staying. I hope Joe Biden’s friends are as blunt in their assessment and that he is wise enough to listen.

I think Friedman is being surpassingly naive with that statement....

Here's the rule in the democrat party:

https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2...

Article IX, Section G sez

Filling a Vacancy on the National Ticket: In the event of death, resignation or disability of a nominee of the Party for President or Vice President after the adjournment of the National Convention, the National Chairperson of the Democratic National Committee shall confer with the Democratic leadership of the United States Congress and the Democratic Governors Association and shall report to the Democratic National Committee, which is authorized to fill the vacancy or vacancies.

The open questions are, who makes the determination of disability? Who gets to certify the disability? It doesn't really say.

Then there's Kamala Harris. What to do with her?

The most practical problem the dems face are the delegates, who are *all* Biden's people. He would have to personally ask them to release their votes and they would have to go along with it.

The main obstacle will be Edith Wil- er, Jill Biden. Will she give up the power she holds now?

Filling a Vacancy on the National Ticket: In the event of death, resignation or disability of a nominee of the Party for President or Vice President after the adjournment of the National Convention, the National Chairperson of the Democratic National Committee shall confer with the Democratic leadership of the United States Congress and the Democratic Governors Association and shall report to the Democratic National Committee, which is authorized to fill the vacancy or vacancies.

I should have read this more closely - it says "after the adjournment of the convention".

So you’ve had the benefit of waking up and absorbing info I didn’t have at 2am. And thanks for being a jerk about it and piling on. I’ll remember.

It’s hardly “piling on” to post the above-the-fold, top-of-the-page headlines from the most prestigious newspapers in the country. The less prestigious ones are saying the same thing, only louder:

USA Today: Is a Reckoning Afoot for Biden After He Falters in Debate with Trump?
https://www.usatoday.com/elections/

Los Angeles Times:
Biden Debate Performance Pushes Dems to Consider the Once Unthinkable: Casting Him Aside
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2024-06-28/...

I’d copy headlines from some of the biggest online news providers, but it would be more of the same. Also Facebook, Twitter, and the usual Right Wing suspects. Also all of Talk Radio and Podcasts. Heck, even Jon Stewart and Rachael Madoff couldn’t find anything good to say.

By the way, I knew this 5 minutes into the debate. It does not matter “if he got better at the end”, by then minds were made up - or rather “confirmed” as to the Right Wing lie that they’ve been spinning for the past year. “He’s old! He’s feeble! He drools!” If you already believed it, it was confirmed. If you were in the middle, it was confirmed. Only die hards are going to say “Well, I’ll go down with the ship.”

When a pitcher is struggling you replace the pitcher, you don’t say “Well, he was fine for the first 2 innings.” It’s not pleasant, and it might not work, but it’s better than burying your head in the sand.

Oh, since I’ve pasted headlines from the Top 5 Newspapers in the US (WSJ, NYT, WaPo, USAToday, and LA Times, in that order, here’s more from #5:)

Biden’s Debate Game West Spectacularly Wrong
Oh, and
A Tongue Tied Octogenarian Debates A Pathological Liar. Nobody Won But Biden Clearly Lost.

Hey, 60's pot smokers turned Corporate Sellouts....put down the 401K statement and the pot for one second:

Do you realize if W Bush or Trump were in Biden's place tonight........by now, their camps would literally be heading to the inauguration?

You I-phone - Text Messaging-Impatient-Reactionaries who jump up and down with the headlines - for once, be adults. For once.

Calm down, move forward.

LOL


PS: Deep down you love being out of power.

You I-phone - Text Messaging-Impatient-Reactionaries who jump up and down with the headlines - for once, be adults. For once.

Calm down, move forward.

Sometimes reality arrives with a bucketful of smelly, cold water.

As it did last night.

For months they've been calling us liars for merely stating the obvious. Now, the coping starts.

Then there's Kamala Harris. What to do with her?

Friedman's naivete isn't in assuming that the Democrats have rules in place if Biden were to voluntarily withdraw from the race. It's in assuming that the convention would quickly rally around a replacement.

Leave aside that it's exceptionally unlikely that Biden would drop out. And that it's exceptionally unlikely that if he did drop out, he wouldn't tell his delegates (who are all Biden loyalists) to vote for his own chosen successor (which would almost certainly be Harris) - that he would allow a true "open" convention.

If he did do that (which he almost certainly won't), the result would be a bloodbath. Not a quick "let's all rally round for the greater good" anointment of a replacement candidate.

If he did do that (which he almost certainly won't), the result would be a bloodbath. Not a quick "let's all rally round for the greater good" anointment of a replacement candidate.

I happen to agree with you.
At any rate, the convention is too late: they were planning on nominating Biden virtually sometime before August 7th (that's Ohio's deadline to get on the ballot; if they wait until their convention they'll miss that).

"DJT up 3.90, on 4 million shares. WHO are the buyers WHAT do they expect in return ? Comprende ?"

Si, comprendo muy bien.

Halfway thru today's trading session, after some time to digest the shitshow to which the world was subjected yesterday, DJT is down 6% at TRIPLE the average daily volume. Who are the sellers? Why are they dumping?

Capisce?

which would almost certainly be Harris

Disagree, because her approvals are even lower than hers, and she has shown no great aptitude for climbing out of the hole. She may be fine, even competent, but she would not be the chosen one.

Better would be an open convention, which would electrify the nation and give Democrats something to be passionate about. As it stands there are only a few potential candidates who could carry the ball. Newsom, Whittmer, and Buttigieg come to mind. Maybe Sanders, although he’s even older but more vigorous) than Biden.

Other possibilities are governors from Pennsylvania or elsewhere, but none have a national profile. This is not about “being nice to Joe” or even to Harris, it’s about what’s most likely to carry the election.

(Some of it also depends on who Trump picks as VP. Two big helpers would be Rubio (because it would peel off Hispanics), or Haley (because it would solidify the fracture), but I expect it to be JD Vance becausehe’s always been a sycophant, unlike the other two I mentioned.)

Disagree, because her approvals are even lower than hers, and she has shown no great aptitude for climbing out of the hole. She may be fine, even competent, but she would not be the chosen one.

I think that's wrong. If Biden chooses to withdraw from the race (again, exceptionally unlikely), then he's probably going to choose the successor. Nearly all those delegates are Biden loyalists, after all. He's unlikely to pass over his Veep.

After all, it's going to be a monumental task to get him to look in the mirror and admit that he made a catastrophic mistake in choosing to run again; it would be another massive lift to get him to admit that he made another catastrophic mistake in choosing his Veep. Or to convince him to compound his dubious 2024 legacy (the first person to clinch a nomination but quit because they couldn't hack it?) by passing over his own #2, who happens to be the first black and the first woman Vice President in history?

This is not about “being nice to Joe” or even to Harris, it’s about what’s most likely to carry the election.

That would be true if the party was making this decision. Or some discrete subset of the party. But it's Joe that will get to decide whether he's the nominee, and whether he'll pick Harris as a successor if he chooses to step aside. I think there's virtually no chance that he'd both step aside and decline to use his influence over the delegates to pick who he wants to be the nominee. I think it's pretty unlikely he'll even agree that Harris would give the Democrats a better chance of winning, but I think it's even more unlikely he'd agree that an open convention gives them a better chance.

That would be true if the party was making this decision. Or some discrete subset of the party. But it's Joe that will get to decide whether he's the nominee, and whether he'll pick Harris as a successor if he chooses to step aside. I think there's virtually no chance that he'd both step aside and decline to use his influence over the delegates to pick who he wants to be the nominee. I think it's pretty unlikely he'll even agree that Harris would give the Democrats a better chance of winning, but I think it's even more unlikely he'd agree that an open convention gives them a better chance.

Well, I suppose that’s true. Of course Joe could throw his weight to someone who already ran against Trump, beat Trump in the popular vote, and who he knows well and might have a certain loyalty to. Her name, Hillary, I think.

Who could round up the Dems quicker than anyone? Who could raise money? Who knows where the bodies are buried? Of course she would have to say yes, and risk being another Adlai Stevenson, but no guts, no glory. Keep Harris as VP, or don’t, doesn’t matter.

PS: She’s younger than Donald. Ah well, pipe dream, I know.

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Well, I suppose that’s true. Of course Joe could throw his weight to someone who already ran against Trump, beat Trump in the popular vote, and who he knows well and might have a certain loyalty to. Her name, Hillary, I think.

Who could round up the Dems quicker than anyone? Who could raise money?

I'm not sure Hillary could do either of those things better than Harris. She's basically been retired from politics for nearly eight years. Sure, she has a hand in - but she's been mostly out of the game for a while. The relationships you need in order to "round up" the main elements of the party and to raise money from major Democratic donors are things that have to be maintained and cultivated and fostered. And Clinton not only has huge negatives among the GOP and independents that haven't faded from 2016 (which is why she lost that campaign), but she's probably more intensely disliked by the progressive base than any other alternative. Both for denying them their Sanders dream and for the various things she's done over the last eight years, most recently to scold progressives on Israel/Gaza. Passing up Harris for Clinton would tear the party apart more assuredly than leapfrogging her for Newsome or Whitmer.

Again, idle fancy - I can't imagine Joe looking in the mirror and deciding he can't beat Donald Trump. He's the only one who ever has, after all....

Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) Now down -14% for the day.

Apparently Mr. Market was not impressed with Trumps pathetic Gish galloping.

When a pitcher is struggling you replace the pitcher, you don’t say “Well, he was fine for the first 2 innings.”

You've got the right metaphor, but the wrong view. Let's back up a bit to start.

Baseball is a game designed for summer. The season is 162 games over 6 months. It's not like football which requires maximum effort every play - so much effort that it takes a week to properly recover before playing the next game. It's not like basketball which requires constant running and movement. Baseball has a slower pace - a pace appropriate for playing in the heat of summer. And the season is long and grueling. Most importantly, no team wins every game. If you are a baseball player, you are going to lose games. There is no way around that. But losing one game during the season is not the end. You get up the next day and play again. Losing yesterday no longer matters. It's about today's game, not yesterday's game or tomorrow's game.


The Biden team did not do well yesterday. Did they over-prepare him? Did they fail to prepare him for some aspects? Was he a bit sick? Should there have been a debate at all? It doesn't matter for today's game (although some folks should spend some time thinking about those questions and many others). The point is that was one day. It was a bad day, but it is not the end of the season. There are a lot more days to go before the season is over. There are a lot more opportunities for Biden to show what he can do.

I don't like going back to the same resource, but I will anyway. Here's some clips of Biden today. Less that 24 hours after last night's mess. This doesn't sound like a guy who needs to be given the boot. This sounds like a guy who has his marbles together, has energy, and knows the job that needs to be done - to win an election, but more importantly to lead a country for the next 4 years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNbpReScD_I

Gotta let the host get his commentary in, but most of the video time is clips from Biden's rally today. Just skip over the host if he bothers you.

--Peter

It doesn't matter for today's game

The big difference is that every baseball game starts anew. Politics doesn’t, there is this thing call “image momentum”. Basically it’s why people are still buying Cadillacs even though they’ve sucked for a decade. With Joe it’s going the other way, it was already low by any standard, and he sank it last night. You know that old saying “You only get one chance to make a first impression”? Joe was already on the downhill and made it worse. It’s a hole so deep he’ll never climb out. There isn’t time or money enough (and the money is going to stop flowing, just watch.)

Here are some clips of Biden today

Great. Let’s get 9 television networks to broadcast them in roadblock fashion after a month of build-up for a big competition, and see if we can get 20 million people to watch instead of a few hundred in a hall somewhere. Terrific. Where was it lat night at 9PM?

PS: TheNew York Times preselected 6 “undecided” voters before the debate. All six are now in or heading to Trump’s column. Scary? I should say so.

Baseball is a game designed for summer. The season is 162 games over 6 months. It's not like football which requires maximum effort every play - so much effort that it takes a week to properly recover before playing the next game. It's not like basketball which requires constant running and movement. Baseball has a slower pace - a pace appropriate for playing in the heat of summer. And the season is long and grueling. Most importantly, no team wins every game. If you are a baseball player, you are going to lose games. There is no way around that. But losing one game during the season is not the end. You get up the next day and play again. Losing yesterday no longer matters. It's about today's game, not yesterday's game or tomorrow's game.

The problem with that metaphor, though, is that politics isn't like baseball. It's not a sequence of individual contests that begin afresh with each new game. It's not an athletic contest where the rules are such that no one can "win" every game. A competent, capable politician should never turn in a performance like Biden did last night.

This isn't a "just one bad game" type of scenario. Biden has been struggling with voters for quite a while now, and we're well into the heart of the 2024 campaign. Voters are concerned about his age, and he has not been able to dispel that for months now (if not longer).

If one insists on the baseball metaphor, this is analogous to a starting pitcher having struggled with an injury all season and being down in the minors, and finally getting called up about 3/5 of the way through the season and getting their first start. And then not just getting lit up and losing the game, but visibly pitching horribly and not being able to complete their normal pitching motion. In that scenario, you wouldn't just wave it away by noting that even the best pitchers at the top of their form sometimes have a single bad game - you would look at that performance and correctly conclude that they weren't capable of pitching in the majors in their current condition.

Biden has been struggling with voters for quite a while now, and we're well into the heart of the 2024 campaign. Voters are concerned about his age, and he has not been able to dispel that for months now (if not longer).

Fine, then. Let's just give up and crown Trump emperor for life. Apparently we can't change things in the next 4 months. It's all already set in stone because of a bad debate performance.

Perhaps this web site will come in handy for people who want to continue to live in a democracy.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citi...


--Peter

{{ Leave aside that it's exceptionally unlikely that Biden would drop out. And that it's exceptionally unlikely that if he did drop out, he wouldn't tell his delegates (who are all Biden loyalists) to vote for his own chosen successor (which would almost certainly be Harris) - that he would allow a true "open" convention.

If he did do that (which he almost certainly won't), the result would be a bloodbath. Not a quick "let's all rally round for the greater good" anointment of a replacement candidate. }}

Washington Post columnist Matt Bai thinks that an "Open Convention" could give the Democrats a Reality TV Show the equal of the Trump Circus, a Hail Mary pass in an otherwise losing situation.

free link:
https://wapo.st/3zvOEOA

America loves "Unscripted TV", that's how Trump won the first time.

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