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In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
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Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: Jim's bottom detector
Date: 04/09/25 5:44 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 18
Did you have any other signals earlier in 2022? Thanks

Here are all the dates of just the strict "classic" bottom detector signal since the start of 1999. I'm not sure when I created this precise model, but it was prior to March 2009 since I used it to call a bottom at that time.
The model can be tuned for sensitivity, so very low numbers would not show up in the list with a slightly different tuning, and more would show up with a more lenient tuning.

The table also shows an arbitrarily scaled strength metric (how extremely bottom-like the day seemed to be at the time) and forward returns for the S&P 500 index over 6, 12, and 24 months.

The usually suggested strategy is to ignore signals multiple days in a row, and not buy till the first day that you DON'T get a signal. Safety first, kids.

There are only 13 distinct signal clusters, counting the start of a cluster as a signal that was more than 6 trading days after the previous one.

The July 2007 cluster was way too early, but otherwise it does seem to be better than random.

Date          Strength    f6m     f1y     f2y
2002-07-24 0.2 5% 16% 29%
2008-07-11 3.0 -28% -27% -12%
2008-07-14 17.9 -29% -26% -11%
2008-07-15 46.5 -29% -23% -10%
2008-07-16 28.9 -32% -25% -14%
2008-10-03 90.5 -24% -5% 6%
2008-10-06 100.0 -23% 0% 10%
2008-10-07 98.7 -16% 7% 17%
2008-10-08 98.0 -13% 8% 18%
2008-10-09 99.2 -5% 19% 29%
2008-10-10 98.7 -8% 18% 28%
2008-10-15 8.0 -5% 20% 29%
2008-10-16 81.1 -12% 15% 25%
2008-10-22 85.0 -4% 22% 32%
2008-10-23 93.5 -5% 21% 32%
2008-10-24 96.4 -2% 22% 35%
2008-10-27 88.9 3% 25% 40%
2008-10-28 87.7 -7% 11% 26%
2008-11-11 47.0 0% 23% 35%
2008-11-12 76.4 4% 27% 41%
2008-11-13 82.2 1% 21% 32%
2008-11-17 42.6 6% 30% 39%
2008-11-18 73.8 3% 29% 39%
2008-11-19 82.8 10% 36% 49%
2008-11-20 77.8 20% 45% 58%
2008-11-21 58.8 11% 38% 48%
2009-02-17 4.9 24% 39% 68%
2009-02-18 39.2 25% 40% 69%
2009-02-19 33.6 28% 43% 73%
2009-02-20 78.6 30% 43% 73%
2009-02-23 62.4 38% 47% 77%
2009-02-24 49.1 33% 43% 70%
2009-02-27 52.1 41% 53% 82%
2009-03-02 83.4 46% 59% 85%
2009-03-03 88.6 46% 60% 88%
2009-03-04 38.7 41% 59% 88%
2009-03-05 87.9 46% 66% 93%
2009-03-06 90.9 47% 67% 93%
2009-03-09 80.2 50% 68% 94%
2011-08-08 8.8 20% 25% 51%
2011-08-09 26.0 15% 20% 44%
2011-10-03 21.5 29% 32% 54%
2011-10-04 38.2 24% 29% 49%
2015-09-29 1.7 9% 15% 33%
2016-01-20 26.1 17% 22% 51%
2018-10-23 0.7 7% 10% 26%
2018-10-24 2.5 10% 13% 27%
2018-10-26 5.4 9% 13% 22%
2018-12-20 4.0 19% 31% 50%
2018-12-21 21.0 22% 34% 54%
2018-12-24 29.6 24% 37% 56%
2018-12-26 34.2 20% 33% 52%
2020-03-17 13.9 40% 62% 78%
2020-03-18 28.7 40% 63% 84%
2020-03-19 32.7 38% 61% 83%
2020-03-23 54.3 41% 67% 92%
2022-09-29 2.2 2% 17% 47%


Jim
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Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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