I already responded, the 5-7 people considered to be her VP, the short list, would have produced the party nominee.

Well then, now I know you haven't given it any thought. Virtually none of the candidates on her short list would have entered the race at all if Biden had announced in, say, summer of 2023 that he wasn't running again.

Walz, Kelly and Shapiro had done nothing to build up their national profile - they're good VP choices, but none of them had laid the groundwork to start a Presidential campaign against an incumbent Veep on a few months notice. Beshear was in the home stretch of his 2023 gubernatorial re-election campaign (KY does their elections in the off-year) - far too late to switch gears. Buttigieg would have passed as well - running against his own Veep would have been exceedingly difficult, he'd never have a prayer on fundraising, and he would be almost guaranteed a cabinet spot in her Administration. The only one of her Veep shortlist that might have thrown into the ring in summer 2023 is Pritzker - and I think Harris beats him easily.

Remember, pointing out that Harris might not be the best candidate to win the general election in 2024 is not very strong evidence that she wouldn't have won the primary. Being the incumbent Veep is almost impossible for any rival to overcome - no incumbent Veep that has sought their party's nomination in the modern primary era has ever lost. They have a massive national public platform, they have the benefit of having campaigned - and won - in a national election, they have the best fundraising position of any candidate, and they hold the highest office of any other candidate. And Harris had even more advantages - she had the support of Jim Clyburn in early-state South Carolina, and her home state is the largest delegate prize and is on Super Tuesday in 2024.

So, no - I'm still not convinced that Harris isn't the odds-on favorite to win a primary that starts in summer 2023. Unless you can give me an actual name of a candidate you think beats her?