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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: anchak   😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: P123 ML for MI
Date: 05/04/24 11:22 AM
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RAM ..... I find this statement a bit strange

"I’m still in the experimental stages, experimenting with
Random Forest, Extra trees and SVM. Nothing has worked for me as well as I can do with traditional
screens in the SP500 arena with GTR1 or P123"

All traditional screening methods are nothing but intersection rulesets - RF ( Random Forest) is a ruleset ensemble. So its almost impossible for it not to reproduce any GTR1 based screener.

The KEY differences are that in ML based methods - there's inbuilt Train, Test, Validation samples to ensure your model is not OVERFITTING. While on Screens there's NONE. You are using the entire Lookback period to test the efficacy of your method.

In that case - I would PERSONALLY trust RF ( Its literally one of the most robust MLs out there , handling noise based data) more than your screen ie its pointing out a major Overfit risk.

Best
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This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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