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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: musselmant ✧☼  😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: s&p500 useful criteria
Date: 09/20/26 8:00 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 13
Here is a list of stock-selection criteria that were useful in my point-in-time S&P 500 testing independently and in combinations.

Momentum / relative strength

6-month return
9-month return
12-month return
12-1 momentum: return from about 12 months ago through about 1 month ago
Require longer-term return to be positive
Momentum deterioration test: compare the most recent 9-month return with the two preceding non-overlapping 9-month periods

Moving-average / trend strength

Price > SMA100
Price > SMA200
SMA30 / SMA180 ratio
SMA50 / SMA180 ratio
SMA50 / SMA200 spread, preferably normalized: (SMA50-SMA200)/SMA200
Ranking by strength of the moving-average relationship rather than merely using a yes/no crossover

Position in the long-term price range

PHL: current price divided by a combination of the trailing-period high and low
Test both roughly 252-day and 320-day versions
This was especially useful as a final reranking criterion after another screen had narrowed the universe

Volume / accumulation

Signed AD over about 63 sessions: reward volume on up days and subtract volume on down days
Chaikin-style accumulation over multiple lookbacks
Average dollar volume over about 40 sessions
Average dollar volume over about 200 sessions
Volume criteria were often more useful after a momentum or trend prefilter than over the entire S&P 500

Short-term pullback / anti-chase

Very short-term return, especially around 5 days
Rather than simply buying the biggest short-term losers, try eliminating the strongest recent gainers before applying the next ranking
10- to 12-session return divided by longer-term volatility
Low short-term-return / volatility ratio
These were particularly useful when applied inside an already-strong longer-term candidate pool

Volatility / downside-risk measures

63-day realized volatility
Longer-term geometric standard deviation of daily returns
Downside deviation, including approximately 63- and 84-session versions
Return divided by volatility
Return divided by Ulcer Index
Low-volatility or low-downside-risk reranking among a small set of otherwise attractive stocks

52-week / recovery-type measures

“Escape” measures based on how strongly price has moved away from a prior low
These worked much better when followed by a short-term pullback criterion and then a long-term price-position criterion than as a standalone screen

Price-path / information measures

FIP / information-discreteness measures over roughly 189 sessions
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This community has written 6,224 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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