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*                         8/28     9/4      9/11     9/18/23
S&P 500 Index             4405.71  4515.77  4457.49  4450.32
Trailing 12 month PE      23.65    24.34    23.97    23.87
Trail Earnings yield      4.23%    4.11%    4.17%    4.19%
Forward 12 month PE       20.68    21.00    20.68    20.58
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.84%    4.76%    4.83%    4.86%
90 day tbill yield        5.61     5.53     5.55     5.56
10 year tbond yield       4.25%    4.18%    4.26%    4.33%
Arezi Ratio               1.33     1.35     1.33     1.33
Fed Ratio                 0.88     0.88     0.88     0.89

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 54%
stocks, 46% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 24%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 70%.

Elan

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